It was a head-turning headline. Here's why the market was buzzing.
MRNA Moderna, Inc. Common Stock
XNAS
226.61
Delayed
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
MRNA
$226.61
—
Key stats
$226.61
- 52-Week Range
- $22.28 – $242.29
- YTD
- +634.31%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 100.0
- Straddle Price
- $59.83
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.74
- Market Cap
- $87.0B
- Open
- $217.27
- Day Range
- $216.00 – $236.77
- Volume
- 18,858,205
- Prev Close
- $218.01
Fair Value
MODEL: NEUTRAL
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 5.19% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.02 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 10.78% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 10.69% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +34.3pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj +50bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | -10.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 5 years explicit + fade |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $-1.2B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -46.6% |
| Book / Price | 7.9% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 23.4% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | -55.8% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.09 |
| Quality Score | 1/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $154.93 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $201.18 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 16.0% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-1.1B |
| Market Cap | $86B |
Peers used for multiples: AMGN, GH, GILD, NTRA, REGN, RVMD, TWST, VRTX
60-Day Conviction
28%
20-Day Fair Value
≈ by Nov 17, 2026
$230.28
α +1.5%
rank 11%
conviction
77%
40-Day Fair Value
≈ by Dec 16, 2026
$229.04
α +0.9%
rank 11%
conviction
29%
60-Day Fair Value
≈ by Jan 14, 2027
$225.09
α -0.8%
rank 11%
conviction
28%
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | median 26.8× · 3 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | median 21.4× · 4 peers |
| Peer P/B | $283.86 | 11% | median 16.5× · 7 peers |
| Peer P/S | $58.05 | 11% | median 10.2× · 7 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $154.93 | 49% | stability 85% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $210.13 | 29% | 44 strikes · skew +0.19 |
As of 2026-10-19 · updated
Related
About
- Industry (SIC)
- BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES) (2836) · industry map
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $87.0B
- Employees
- 4,700
- List Date
- 2018-12-07
- CIK
- 0001682852
- Next Earnings
- 2026-11-06 (Pre-Market)
- EPS Forecast
- ($1.10) (7 est.)
- Headquarters
- Cambridge, MA
- Homepage
- https://www.modernatx.com
Moderna is a commercial-stage biotech that was founded in 2010 and had its initial public offering in 2018. The firm's mRNA technology was rapidly validated with its covid vaccine, which was authorized in the United States in December 2020. Moderna had 25 mRNA development candidates in clinical studies as of March 2026. Programs span a wide range of therapeutic areas, including infectious disease, oncology, cardiovascular disease, and rare genetic diseases.
Summary
—
composite
—
No summary data available for this symbol yet.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
Chart
Seasonality
| Month | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 54.98% | -27.96% | -1.64% | -10.18% | -6.14% | 42.81% | 8.64% |
| Feb | -1.70% | -11.08% | -20.36% | -6.85% | -15.29% | 25.90% | -4.90% |
| Mar | -16.80% | 15.21% | 13.21% | 12.10% | -6.34% | -3.87% | 2.25% |
| Apr | 34.91% | -23.89% | -16.67% | 4.46% | 5.08% | -8.18% | -0.72% |
| May | -0.54% | 2.29% | -4.27% | 27.89% | -1.74% | 4.01% | 4.61% |
| Jun | 27.25% | -0.38% | -5.46% | -19.67% | 2.00% | 52.04% | 9.30% |
| Jul | 50.40% | 9.43% | -3.34% | 2.82% | 3.03% | -23.64% | 6.45% |
| Aug | 8.68% | -18.10% | -0.76% | -17.81% | -12.73% | 154.52% | 18.97% |
| Sep | -1.30% | -14.90% | -8.24% | -8.38% | 6.78% | 24.83% | -0.20% |
| Oct | 1.21% | 24.25% | -26.47% | -14.97% | -1.59% | 20.09%* | 0.42% |
| Nov | 4.53% | 13.77% | 1.97% | -21.18% | 4.30% | -- | 0.68% |
| Dec | -18.23% | -1.02% | 24.58% | -6.06% | 22.06% | -- | 4.27% |
| Total | 202.05% | -38.92% | -45.01% | -50.93% | -5.66% | 631.18% | 115.45% |
Technical Indicators
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
Trend Indicators
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
Volume & Volatility
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
SMA 20: $203.87
SMA 50: $158.29
SMA 200: $78.38
Current: $226.89
EMA 12: $213.26
EMA 26: $193.46
MACD: 19.8018 | Signal: 0.1436
BULLISH
ADX (14): 62.14
STRONG TREND
+DI: 32.14
−DI: 9.16
Momentum Oscillators
RSI (14): 64.26
NEUTRAL
Stoch %K: 74.65
Stoch %D: 81.67
Williams %R: -25.76
Volume & Volatility
BB Upper: $235.46
BB Lower: $172.29
NEUTRAL
OBV: 453,034,567
Vol SMA 20: 18,262,782
Vol ROC: -2.44%
ATR: $17.16
True Range: $20.77
HV 20: 85.1%
HV 30: 82.7%
HV 60: 229.1%
Data Summary
Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-10-21T00:00:00 – 2026-10-19T00:00:00
AI Analysis
MRNA (Moderna Inc.) - Comprehensive Stock Analysis Report
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: BULLISH with 7/10 Confidence
Moderna presents a conflicted technical and sentiment picture with strong directional momentum offset by elevated valuation concerns and bearish options positioning. The stock has experienced remarkable appreciation (+200%+ from the $75.43 200-day MA) supported by genuine technical strength (ADX 62.77 indicating a strong trend), but is now trading 61% above Wall Street's average price target with overbought momentum indicators suggesting near-term consolidation or pullback risk.
Key Drivers:
- Exceptional technical uptrend with price 3x the 200-day MA
- Strong institutional accumulation signals (positive OBV, MACD bullish crossover)
- Nasdaq-100 inclusion driving passive inflows
- Strategic collaborations and pipeline momentum (Tempus AI expansion)
Primary Risks:
- Extreme valuation disconnect (trading far above consensus targets)
- Overbought conditions (RSI 69.15, Stochastic at 81.49) with limited upside before mean reversion
- Bearish options positioning (2.02 put/call volume ratio)
- High historical volatility (HV60 229%) creating execution risk
- Early warning of market skepticism (negative news on 10-12, followed by gains on 10-13 suggesting profit-taking uncertainty)
Investment Thesis: Moderna's technical trend remains intact with strong ADX and positive MACD momentum, but the 61% valuation premium above analyst targets and overbought RSI signal diminishing risk/reward. The put/call volume ratio of 2.02 and elevated IV (96.7th percentile) suggest institutional hedging, indicating sophisticated investors are protecting gains rather than adding exposure. Optimal entry points likely require pullback to $194-207 (SMA20-EMA12 support zone).
Recent News Sentiment Impact: Mixed-to-positive with underlying caution. Positive headlines on 10-8 and 10-10 drove Nasdaq inclusion and valuation support, but the 10-12 decline despite broader market strength suggests sector-specific headwinds or profit-taking. The neutral tone of 10-13 headlines despite a $4B+ weekly gain indicates consensus skepticism about further upside sustainability.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction
| Timeframe | Trend | Strength | Support | |-----------|-------|----------|---------| | Short-term (1-4 weeks) | STRONGLY BULLISH | Extreme | $207-210 (EMA12/SMA20) | | Medium-term (1-3 months) | BULLISH | Strong | $148-155 (SMA50) | | Long-term (3-12 months) | BULLISH | Moderate | $75 (SMA200) |
Interpretation: Price action is decisively above all major moving averages (20, 50, 200-day). The current price of $226.30 represents:
- 2.99x the 200-day MA ($75.43) — historically extreme
- 1.53x the 50-day MA ($148.05) — well extended
- 1.17x the 20-day MA ($194.06) — modest extension into overbought
The EMA 12 ($204.56) and EMA 26 ($184.78) positioning suggests momentum remains positive but is beginning to fade (spread narrowing from peak separation).
Support/Resistance Levels
RESISTANCE (Downside Risk Levels):
- $230.94 — Upper Bollinger Band (current price $226.30 = 1.8% below)
- $235-240 — Psychological/technical resistance (recent highs)
- Wall Street Average Target: ~$140 — 38% downside implied by consensus
SUPPORT (Buyers Emerge):
- $207-210 — EMA 12 ($204.56) and SMA 20 ($194.06) convergence zone
- $184-188 — EMA 26 ($184.78) and psychological level
- $148 — SMA 50 (primary medium-term support)
- $75.43 — SMA 200 (long-term floor, currently 3x away)
Critical Observation: The $194.06 SMA20 to $230.94 upper BB represents only a 19% window for the entire short-term trend. Price is already at the edge of this band, suggesting limited additional upside without a breakout confirmation.
Momentum Signals
RSI (14): 69.15 — NEUTRAL READING WITH CAUTION
- Reading is in the 30-70 "neutral zone" but sits near the overbought threshold of 70
- Historically, RSI in the 65-75 range on strong trends can sustain for weeks, but indicates diminishing buying pressure
- Signal Interpretation: No immediate reversal warning, but lack of RSI >75 despite 200%+ move suggests exhaustion building
Stochastic Oscillators: %K 81.49 / %D 81.52 — OVERBOUGHT EXTREMES
- Both indicators at 81+ (>80 = overbought condition)
- %K and %D are nearly aligned (81.49 vs 81.52), indicating lack of recent momentum divergence
- Signal Interpretation: This is a CRITICAL WARNING for mean reversion. When Stochastic remains locked in the 80+ range with aligned K/D values, reversals often follow
- Williams %R at -2.58 (extremely overbought, scale -100 to 0) confirms this reading
MACD: 19.78 / Signal 0.59 / Histogram 19.19 — STRONGLY BULLISH BUT PLATEAUING
- Histogram of 19.19 represents an extremely wide separation between MACD and signal line
- This magnitude of MACD histogram (>15) typically indicates late-stage momentum
- Signal Interpretation: Bullish crossover is confirmed, but the large histogram gap suggests we're in the "victory lap" phase of momentum, not early-stage acceleration. Convergence (histogram declining) would be the first reversal warning.
Momentum Synthesis: Momentum remains directionally bullish (MACD, ADX), but oscillators (RSI, Stochastic) show fatigue. This is a classic late-stage momentum configuration where the trend is intact but susceptible to profit-taking.
Volume Analysis
Volume Metrics:
- 20-day Volume SMA: 18.4M shares/day
- Volume Rate of Change: -19.13% (declining volume)
- On-Balance Volume: 421M (positive, accumulation trend)
Interpretation:
- Declining volume on a rally is a RED FLAG: The -19.13% VROC indicates volume is contracting despite the stock making new highs, suggesting retail interest is waning
- High OBV (421M cumulative positive volume) indicates institutional accumulation historically, but the divergence between rising prices and declining current volume suggests institutions may have completed accumulation
- Data Quality Note: With 18.4M shares/day average and current VROC at -19.13%, today's volume likely ~14.9M shares — materially lighter than recent average
Volume Conclusion: Volume declining into resistance is textbook distribution warning. Institutional buyers appear to have stepped aside as retail enthusiasm peaks.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary
Sentiment Breakdown:
- Positive: 3 headlines (10-8, 10-10 Nasdaq entry; Tempus AI collaboration)
- Neutral: 2 headlines (10-13 buy/hold/sell question; MRNA vs VRTX comparison)
- Negative: 1 headline (10-12 underperformance vs market)
Key Themes:
| Catalyst | Date | Impact | Alignment | |----------|------|--------|-----------| | Nasdaq-100 Inclusion | 10-8 | Positive (passive inflows) | Supports rally | | Valuation Concern ("61% above target") | 10-10 | Mixed (recognition of risk) | Contradicts momentum | | Market Underperformance | 10-12 | Negative (divergence from rally) | Technical breakdown warning | | Tempus AI Collaboration | 10-12 | Positive (strategic value) | Offset by underperformance | | Weekly Gains ($4B+) | 10-13 | Positive
Generated
News
All MRNA news →
BioNTech has billions in cash, and its oncology programs are moving into late-stage clinical trials.
Vertex raised its full-year outlook in Q2 with a growing pipeline across multiple disease areas. Moderna’s mRNA flu vaccine just cleared a key FDA hurdle with an expanding oncology pipeline behind it.
Is bigger always better? Not necessarily.
Showing 1–10 of 50
Page 1 of 5
Earnings History
17 of 25 under expected move
Avg Expected Move
8.50%
Avg Actual Move
7.31%
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-25 | Pre-Market | 8.01% | 2.48% | 0.31x | Within |
| 2021-04-13 | Pre-Market | 5.42% | 7.40% | 1.37x | Exceeded |
| 2021-08-05 | Pre-Market | 8.25% | 0.67% | 0.08x | Within |
| 2021-11-04 | Pre-Market | 7.07% | 17.89% | 2.53x | Exceeded |
| 2022-01-04 | Pre-Market | 6.53% | 0.85% | 0.13x | Within |
| 2022-02-24 | Pre-Market | 11.60% | 15.10% | 1.30x | Exceeded |
| 2022-05-04 | Pre-Market | 10.97% | 5.81% | 0.53x | Within |
| 2022-08-03 | Pre-Market | 7.54% | 15.97% | 2.12x | Exceeded |
| 2023-01-09 | Pre-Market | 6.32% | 2.00% | 0.32x | Within |
| 2023-02-23 | Pre-Market | 7.25% | 6.70% | 0.92x | Within |
| 2023-05-04 | Pre-Market | 6.70% | 3.22% | 0.48x | Within |
| 2023-08-03 | Pre-Market | 7.38% | 0.24% | 0.03x | Within |
| 2023-11-02 | Pre-Market | 8.33% | 6.52% | 0.78x | Within |
| 2024-01-08 | Pre-Market | 7.25% | 3.89% | 0.54x | Within |
| 2024-02-22 | Pre-Market | 9.77% | 13.53% | 1.38x | Exceeded |
| 2024-05-02 | Pre-Market | 7.56% | 12.68% | 1.68x | Exceeded |
| 2024-08-01 | Pre-Market | 8.18% | 21.01% | 2.57x | Exceeded |
| 2024-11-07 | Pre-Market | 13.51% | 2.95% | 0.22x | Within |
| 2025-01-13 | Pre-Market | 9.41% | 16.80% | 1.79x | Exceeded |
| 2025-05-01 | Pre-Market | 10.84% | 5.29% | 0.49x | Within |
| 2025-08-01 | Pre-Market | 10.25% | 6.61% | 0.64x | Within |
| 2025-11-06 | Pre-Market | 8.83% | 3.27% | 0.37x | Within |
| 2026-02-13 | Pre-Market | 9.40% | 5.29% | 0.56x | Within |
| 2026-05-01 | Pre-Market | 8.05% | 1.24% | 0.15x | Within |
| 2026-07-31 | Pre-Market | 8.09% | 5.35% | 0.66x | Within |
Earnings calendar: this week’s reports with expected vs actual moves →
MRNA Options Activity & IV Rank
MRNA IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Current IV: 114.8%
7-DTE IV: 143.6%
Expected Move: $59.83
7-DTE Move: $21.80
Days to Exp: 32 (2026-11-20)
Options Flow
Call Volume: 3,758
Put Volume: 2,773
P/C Volume: 0.738
NEUTRAL
Call OI: 42,861
Put OI: 77,569
P/C OI: 1.81
Total OI: 120,430
ATM Options Pricing
ATM Call: $29.90
ATM Put: $29.93
Call %: 13.2%
Put %: 13.2%
Chain Summary
Chain Volume: 91,339
Chain OI: 788,865
Last Updated: 10/19/2026
Spread Scanner GPU
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Dealer Positioning
HIGH γ vs HISTORY
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 98th percentile of this name's own daily history, near the high end of its range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Gamma percentile
98%
vs own history
GEX tilt
+0.58
OI-weighted, today
Vanna tilt
+0.53
δ-sensitivity to IV
Charm tilt
-0.46
δ-decay vs time
Vanna tilt +0.53: the estimated dealer exposure leans positive, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably if implied volatility changed.
Charm tilt -0.46: the estimated dealer exposure leans negative, so the modeled hedge would shift noticeably as time passes and options approach expiry.
? What is this?
· 210 ATM contracts, 116k total OI
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d
86%
+7.4
pts
EXTREME
ATM 156.5% / Wing 163.9%
30 DTE / 10d
28%
+0.6
pts
EXTREME
ATM 112.5% / Wing 113.1%
Extreme reading.
Historically these have been contrarian — on the small set of observed earnings-day cases, large negative wing-vs-ATM gaps (calls pricing much richer than puts at the same delta) preceded sharp drops in the underlying within 1-12 days. Not financial advice and the dataset is small.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Volatility Surface
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Volatility Smile
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
IV Rank (7 DTE)100.0HighOct 19
IV Rank (30 DTE)100.0HighOct 19
Straddle Price (30 DTE)$59.83Oct 19
Beta Analysis
Risk Metrics
Beta: 2.0477
Alpha: 293.28%
Correlation: 0.1345
R-Squared: 1.8%
Stock Volatility: 193.8%
Market Volatility: 12.7%
Analysis Details
Benchmark: SPY
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Interpretation:
High volatility - stock moves more than market
High volatility - stock moves more than market
Beta & Alpha Over Time
MRNA Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-09-30
? 13F Guide
Diluted shares outstanding: 393,000,000 (as of 2026-06-30)
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
51 filers$1.75B notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $398.63M | 22.82% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Tidal Investments LLC | $269.62M | 15.43% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $214.54M | 12.28% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $211.92M | 12.13% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $177.61M | 10.17% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Custodian | $101.37M | 5.80% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | Affinity Asset Advisors, LLC | $33.26M | 1.90% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $32.65M | 1.87% | 2026-06-30 |
| 9 | LMR Partners LLP | $30.81M | 1.76% | 2026-06-30 |
| 10 | Caption Management, LLC | $25.49M | 1.46% | 2026-06-30 |
| 11 | Squarepoint Ops LLC | $21.91M | 1.25% | 2026-06-30 |
| 12 | Citigroup Inc. Custodian | $21.01M | 1.20% | 2026-06-30 |
| 13 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $19.30M | 1.10% | 2026-06-30 |
| 14 | Wolverine Trading, LLC Custodian | $17.68M | 1.01% | 2025-09-30 |
| 15 | UBS Group AG Custodian | $17.17M | 0.98% | 2026-06-30 |
| 16 | Walleye Trading LLC | $16.53M | 0.95% | 2026-06-30 |
| 17 | Qube Research & Technologies Ltd | $16.19M | 0.93% | 2026-06-30 |
| 18 | Alphadyne Asset Management LP | $11.12M | 0.64% | 2026-06-30 |
| 19 | Militia Capital Management LLC | $10.40M | 0.60% | 2026-06-30 |
| 20 | CAPSTONE INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC | $9.64M | 0.55% | 2026-06-30 |
| 21 | Walleye Capital LLC | $9.44M | 0.54% | 2026-06-30 |
| 22 | PEAK6 LLC | $8.89M | 0.51% | 2026-06-30 |
| 23 | Goldman Sachs Group Inc Custodian | $8.75M | 0.50% | 2026-06-30 |
| 24 | National Bank of Canada Custodian | $8.75M | 0.50% | 2026-06-30 |
| 25 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $8.63M | 0.49% | 2026-06-30 |
52 filers$1.83B notional
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $310.75M | 16.95% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $290.78M | 15.86% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $203.91M | 11.12% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | LMR Partners LLP | $136.12M | 7.42% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $119.21M | 6.50% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. Custodian | $97.57M | 5.32% | 2026-06-30 |
| 7 | National Bank of Canada Custodian | $86.42M | 4.71% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC | $70.03M | 3.82% | 2026-06-30 |
| 9 | Simplex Trading, LLC Custodian | $50.27M | 2.74% | 2026-06-30 |
| 10 | Barclays PLC Custodian | $43.61M | 2.38% | 2026-06-30 |
| 11 | Walleye Trading LLC | $42.17M | 2.30% | 2026-06-30 |
| 12 | Affinity Asset Advisors, LLC | $35.02M | 1.91% | 2026-06-30 |
| 13 | UBS Group AG Custodian | $32.16M | 1.75% | 2026-06-30 |
| 14 | Ikarian Capital, LLC | $28.01M | 1.53% | 2026-06-30 |
| 15 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $27.54M | 1.50% | 2026-06-30 |
| 16 | JPMorgan Chase & Co Custodian | $23.36M | 1.27% | 2026-06-30 |
| 17 | Squarepoint Ops LLC | $22.48M | 1.23% | 2026-06-30 |
| 18 | Caption Management, LLC | $21.88M | 1.19% | 2026-06-30 |
| 19 | Alphadyne Asset Management LP | $21.53M | 1.17% | 2026-06-30 |
| 20 | Qube Research & Technologies Ltd | $13.66M | 0.75% | 2026-06-30 |
| 21 | Wolverine Trading, LLC Custodian | $12.95M | 0.71% | 2025-09-30 |
| 22 | Capital Markets Trading UK LLP | $12.68M | 0.69% | 2026-06-30 |
| 23 | Millennium Management LLC Custodian | $12.21M | 0.67% | 2026-06-30 |
| 24 | CAPSTONE INVESTMENT ADVISORS, LLC | $11.32M | 0.62% | 2026-06-30 |
| 25 | PEAK6 LLC | $11.27M | 0.61% | 2026-06-30 |
MRNA Insider Trading (Form 4)
Latest: 2026-10-16Form 4 filings — insider beneficial-ownership changes by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders. Filed within 2 business days of transaction.
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Stephen Hoge | President | Mixed | +74,536 | $81.64 | -$15.15M | EDGAR |
| 2026-10-07 | James M Mock | Chief Financial Officer | Mixed | +750 | $190.01 | -$133.8K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-16 | Stephen Hoge | President | Mixed | +72,330 | $58.07 | -$9.82M | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-14 | James M Mock | Chief Financial Officer | Mixed | −15,000 | $96.93 | -$4.07M | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-08 | Shannon Thyme Klinger | Chief Legal Officer | Mixed | +6,093 | $148.87 | -$849.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-08 | James M Mock | Chief Financial Officer | Mixed | +6,093 | $148.87 | -$849.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-03 | James M Mock | Chief Financial Officer | Mixed | +1,278 | $140.34 | -$168.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-03 | Stephen Hoge | President | Mixed | +4,794 | $140.34 | -$630.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-03 | Shannon Thyme Klinger | Chief Legal Officer | Mixed | +1,118 | $92.65 | -$525.4K | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-31 | Shannon Thyme Klinger | Chief Legal Officer | Mixed | +568 | $147.60 | -$79.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-31 | Stephen Hoge | President | Mixed | +1,057 | $147.60 | -$146.3K | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-31 | James M Mock | Chief Financial Officer | Mixed | +568 | $147.60 | -$79.0K | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-07 | Stephane Bancel | Chief Executive Officer | Mixed | +252,469 | $34.46 | -$14.32M | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-07 | Stephane Bancel | Chief Executive Officer | Mixed | +252,469 | $34.46 | -$14.32M | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-16 | Stephen Hoge | President | Mixed | — | $43.38 | -$2.58M | EDGAR |
Codes: P = open-market purchase · S = open-market sale · A = grant/award · M = option exercise · F = tax withholding at vest · G = bona-fide gift · D = disposition to issuer · J = other (described in filing footnote — typically 401(k), trust, inheritance) · W = will/inheritance. Only P / S codes carry directional signal.
MRNA Insider Holdings
12 insiders · @ $226.89
Officers, directors, and 10%+ owners who have filed a Form 4 in the past two years, ranked by current disclosed exposure (shares × today's price). Shares are direct + indirect (via trusts / LLCs / spouse). Excludes unvested RSU and option grants — those aren't beneficially owned until vest.
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephane Bancel | Chief Executive Officer | 12,939,715 | $2.94B | -$1.25B | 286 | 2026-08-07 |
| 2 | Noubar Afeyan | Director | 2,971,912 | $674.30M | -$1.65B | 95 | 2026-05-22 |
| 3 | Stephen Hoge | President | 1,679,826 | $381.14M | -$341.27M | 171 | 2026-10-16 |
| 4 | Paul Sagan | Director | 312,730 | $70.96M | $1.30M | 12 | 2025-05-01 |
| 5 | Shannon Thyme Klinger | Chief Legal Officer | 87,044 | $19.75M | -$3.48M | 51 | 2026-09-08 |
| 6 | James M Mock | Chief Financial Officer | 60,125 | $13.64M | -$5.73M | 40 | 2026-10-07 |
| 7 | Francois Nader | Director | 32,781 | $7.44M | -$435.0K | 10 | 2026-05-08 |
| 8 | Elizabeth G Nabel | Director | 19,317 | $4.38M | -$10.46M | 15 | 2026-05-08 |
| 9 | Sandra Horning | Director | 18,585 | $4.22M | $0 | 9 | 2026-05-08 |
| 10 | Abbas Hussain | Director | 17,748 | $4.03M | -$287.6K | 7 | 2026-05-08 |
Lifetime OM Net = signed sum of open-market buys (P) and sells (S) over their career; excludes grants, tax withholdings, and dispositions to issuer. A large negative number is normal for long-tenured executives — they've sold compensation grants over many years.
MRNA Proposed Insider Sales (Form 144)
Latest: 2026-10-15
? Form 144 Guide
Last 30d:
2 filings
· $17.0M notice value
· Last 90d:
7 filings
· $62.8M notice value
· 4 unique filers
· 100% under 10b5-1 plans
What is Form 144? A notice of intent to sell restricted or control stock under Rule 144. Affiliates (officers, directors, 10%+ owners) and holders of restricted shares must file Form 144 when planning to sell more than 5,000 shares or $50,000 in any 3-month rolling window.
How it relates to Form 4: Form 144 is filed before the trade (up to 90 days in advance); Form 4 is filed within 2 business days after the trade executes. Not every Form 144 results in a sale — the filer may cancel or delay. Look for the corresponding Form 4 on the Insider Activity card to confirm a sale actually happened.
10b5-1 plans: Trades made under a pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 plan are not discretionary — they execute automatically on dates set months earlier, regardless of news. High 10b5-1 percentages mean less per-filing signal value, though cumulative selling volume still matters.
"Notice value": Aggregate market value the filer wrote into the Form 144 — i.e. the size of the planned sale, not necessarily the executed dollars. An amended notice (Form 144/A) replaces the original it amends, and cancelled notices are dropped, so neither is double-counted above. A filed value that is clearly inconsistent with the share count at the stock's price (a filer typo) shows as a dash and is left out of the totals.
Source & freshness: Sourced from public Form 144 filings. Refreshed daily; new filings typically appear here the morning after they are filed.
Top 90-day filers:
Bancel Stephane (1, $29.0M) · Hoge Stephen (4, $28.7M) · Mock James M (1, $4.7M) · Klinger Shannon Thyme (1, $486K)
| Filed | Filer | Role | Shares | Notice Value | Planned Sale | Broker | Plan | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Hoge Stephen | Officer | 39,145 | $8.64M | 2026-10-15 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2026-10-14 | Hoge Stephen | Officer | 39,224 | $8.37M | 2026-10-14 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-15 | Hoge Stephen | Officer | 40,281 | $5.88M | 2026-09-15 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-14 | Hoge Stephen | Officer | 40,294 | $5.81M | 2026-09-14 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-10 | Mock James M | Officer | 34,836 | $4.69M | 2026-09-10 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2026-09-01 | Klinger Shannon Thyme | Officer | 3,471 | $485.8K | 2026-09-01 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2026-08-05 | Bancel Stephane | Officer, Director | 499,246 | $28.96M | 2026-08-05 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2026-07-15 | Hoge Stephen | Officer | 53,336 | $3.61M | 2026-07-15 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-18 | SAGAN PAUL | Former Director | 25,770 | $1.66M | 2026-06-18 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | — | EDGAR |
| 2026-06-15 | Hoge Stephen | Officer | 53,336 | $2.74M | 2026-06-15 | Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC | 10b5-1 | EDGAR |
Notice value is the aggregate market value the filer states they intend to sell — not a confirmed transaction. Compare to Insider Activity (Form 4) to see which planned sales actually executed. Market-wide feed: Planned sales (Form 144).
Recent SEC Filings
Latest: 2026-05-11
Current reports — material events the company must disclose within 4 business days (earnings releases, M&A, executive changes, etc.).
| Filing Date | Accession | Link |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 0001682852-26-000101 | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-01 | 0001682852-26-000057 | EDGAR |
| 2026-03-05 | 0001682852-26-000047 | EDGAR |
| 2026-02-13 | 0001682852-26-000015 | EDGAR |
| 2026-02-11 | 0001682852-26-000012 | EDGAR |
| 2026-01-12 | 0001682852-26-000007 | EDGAR |
| 2026-01-05 | 0001682852-26-000003 | EDGAR |
| 2025-11-24 | 0001628280-25-053816 | EDGAR |
| 2025-11-20 | 0001628280-25-053318 | EDGAR |
| 2025-11-13 | 0001628280-25-052055 | EDGAR |
Annual report — audited financial statements, MD&A, risk factors. Filed 60–90 days after fiscal year-end.
Quarterly report — unaudited financials and MD&A. Filed 40–45 days after each of the first three fiscal quarters.
| Filing Date | Accession | Link |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 0001682852-26-000060 | EDGAR |
| 2025-11-06 | 0001682852-25-000075 | EDGAR |
| 2025-08-01 | 0001682852-25-000044 | EDGAR |
| 2025-05-01 | 0001682852-25-000034 | EDGAR |
| 2024-11-07 | 0001682852-24-000060 | EDGAR |
| 2024-08-01 | 0001682852-24-000046 | EDGAR |
| 2024-05-02 | 0001682852-24-000027 | EDGAR |
| 2023-11-03 | 0001682852-23-000042 | EDGAR |
| 2023-08-03 | 0001682852-23-000027 | EDGAR |
| 2023-05-04 | 0001682852-23-000021 | EDGAR |
ETF Holders
266 ETFs hold MRNA
25 shown · $15.18B total exposure · 0.24% AUM-weighted avg weight
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF | Vanguard | 0.09% | $2.2B | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 2 | VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | Vanguard | 0.11% | $1.9B | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 3 | QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 | Invesco | 0.38% | $1.8B | — | 2026-10-17 |
| 4 | IVV iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.13% | $1.2B | $879.6B | 2026-10-15 |
| 5 | SPY State Street® SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust | SPDR (State Street) | 0.13% | $1.1B | $823.1B | 2026-10-15 |
| 6 | VB Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap ETF | Vanguard | 0.44% | $778.7M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 7 | VO Vanguard Morningstar Mid-Cap ETF | Vanguard | 0.34% | $740.8M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 8 | IBB iShares Biotechnology ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 6.15% | $664.5M | $10.5B | 2026-10-15 |
| 9 | XLV State Street® Health Care Select Sector SPDR® ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 1.37% | $628.3M | $46.0B | 2026-10-15 |
| 10 | CGGR Capital Group Growth ETF | Capitalgroup | 2.13% | $560.6M | $26.4B | 2026-10-15 |
| 11 | VBR Vanguard Morningstar Small-Cap Value ETF | Vanguard | 0.79% | $506.8M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 12 | QQQM Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF | Invesco | 0.38% | $406.7M | — | 2026-10-17 |
| 13 | IWR iShares Russell Mid-Cap ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.63% | $360.0M | $56.3B | 2026-10-15 |
| 14 | VTV Vanguard Morningstar Value ETF | Vanguard | 0.13% | $329.6M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 15 | RSP Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF | Invesco | 0.32% | $317.2M | — | 2026-10-17 |
| 16 | XBI State Street® SPDR® S&P® Biotech ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 2.64% | $272.8M | $10.3B | 2026-10-15 |
| 17 | SPYM State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.13% | $241.7M | $183.9B | 2026-10-15 |
| 18 | VOE Vanguard Morningstar Mid-Cap Value ETF | Vanguard | 0.59% | $216.0M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 19 | VHT Vanguard Health Care ETF | Vanguard | 0.91% | $198.5M | — | 2026-09-30 |
| 20 | IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.23% | $192.4M | $83.7B | 2026-10-15 |
| 21 | IVE iShares S&P 500 Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.29% | $145.9M | $49.9B | 2026-10-15 |
| 22 | IWS iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.85% | $131.0M | $15.4B | 2026-10-15 |
| 23 | DFAC Dimensional US Core Equity 2 ETF | Dimensional | 0.14% | $127.8M | — | 2026-10-15 |
| 24 | ITOT iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.12% | $114.1M | $96.0B | 2026-10-15 |
| 25 | SPYV State Street® SPDR® Portfolio S&P 500® Value ETF | SPDR (State Street) | 0.29% | $110.8M | $37.8B | 2026-10-15 |
Fundamentals
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
Metrics
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
How to read the bars
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
Trailing P/E
—
TTM Diluted EPS
$-7.99
TTM Revenue
$2.23B
TTM Net Income
$-3.15B
TTM Op. Cash Flow
$-1.07B
Quarterly figures (12 quarters)
| Quarter | Period End | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Op. Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 '26 | 2026-06-30 | $145.00M | $-782.00M | $-1.97 | $-526.00M |
| Q1 '26 | 2026-03-31 | $389.00M | $-1.34B | $-3.40 | $-630.00M |
| Q4 '25 | 2025-12-31 | $678.00M | $-826.00M | $-2.11 | $930.00M |
| Q3 '25 | 2025-09-30 | $1.02B | $-200.00M | $-0.51 | $-847.00M |
| Q2 '25 | 2025-06-30 | $142.00M | $-825.00M | $-2.13 | $-919.00M |
| Q1 '25 | 2025-03-31 | $108.00M | $-971.00M | $-2.52 | $-1.04B |
| Q4 '24 | 2024-12-31 | $966.00M | $-1.12B | $-2.91 | $825.00M |
| Q3 '24 | 2024-09-30 | $1.86B | $13.00M | $0.03 | $-1.57B |
| Q2 '24 | 2024-06-30 | $241.00M | $-1.28B | $-3.33 | $-1.27B |
| Q1 '24 | 2024-03-31 | $167.00M | $-1.18B | $-3.07 | $-989.00M |
| Q4 '23 | 2023-12-31 | $2.81B | $217.00M | $0.56 | $622.00M |
| Q3 '23 | 2023-09-30 | $1.83B | $-3.63B | $-9.53 | $-1.60B |
Q2 2026 • period ending 2026-06-30 • filed 2026-07-31
Valuation
Ratios derived from TTM financials and the current market price, sampled daily. History chart shows how expensive the stock is today relative to its own recent past.
Price Multiples
- P/E — price / TTM earnings. Rough market rule: 10–15 value, 15–25 market, >30 growth/premium. Negative when earnings are negative.
- P/B — price / book value. Useful for financials and asset-heavy names; meaningless for asset-light software.
- P/S — price / TTM revenue. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage growth).
- EV/EBITDA — capital-structure-neutral. <10 cheap, 10–15 reasonable, >20 rich. Good for comparing across leverage profiles.
- EV/Sales — like P/S but accounts for debt + cash. Compare within sector.
Profitability & Yields
- ROE — return on equity. >15% strong, >25% exceptional. Caution: high leverage inflates ROE.
- ROA — return on assets. Leverage-neutral; >5% solid, >10% exceptional.
- Div Yield — annual dividend / price. Compare to 10Y Treasury; sustained yield >6% often signals distress.
- FCF Yield — free cash flow / market cap. >5% is attractive; negative means burning cash.
Balance Sheet
- Debt/Equity — leverage. <1 conservative, >2 aggressive. Sector-dependent (utilities naturally high, tech low).
- Current Ratio — short-term liquidity. >1.5 comfortable, <1 raises short-term solvency flags.
Reading the history chart
- Compare current level to the 3-year band: near the high end = relatively expensive; near the low = relatively cheap.
- Multiples expanding while earnings are flat = sentiment-driven rally.
- Multiples compressing while earnings grow = value coming from fundamentals.
P/E
—
P/B
13.19
P/S
40.02
EV/EBITDA
—
EV/Sales
39.52
ROE
-46.6%
ROA
-28.7%
Div Yield
0.00%
FCF Yield
-1.20%
Debt/Equity
0.09
Current Ratio
—
Market Cap
$89.17B
as of 2026-10-19
Short Interest & Float
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
Metric definitions
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
How to read the signals
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
History chart
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.
Short Interest
30.86M
SI % of Float
8.55%
Days to Cover
1.83
Short Vol Ratio
71.1%
Free Float
361.08M
Float %
91.0%
Short interest 2026-09-30 • Short volume 2026-10-19 • Float 2026-05-08