CGAU Centerra Gold Inc.
XNYS 22.04 DelayedStock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $10.46 – $24.52
- YTD
- +55.87%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 0.0
- Straddle Price
- $2.60
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 1.50
- Market Cap
- $4.3B
- Open
- $22.10
- Day Range
- $21.61 – $22.16
- Volume
- 604,970
- Prev Close
- $21.92
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 5.15% |
| Beta vs SPY | 0.96 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.94% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.95% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +39.2pp (IV − HV30) |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +3.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 5 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Quality Score | 0/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $22.39 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $21.90 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 36.5% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $0.0B |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | $4.16 | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | median 18.3× · 3 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | median 85.7× · 4 peers |
| Peer P/B | n/a | 0% | median 5.5× · 4 peers |
| Peer P/S | n/a | 0% | median 28.9× · 4 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $22.39 | 0% | stability 0% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $21.63 | 0% | 7 strikes · skew -0.24 |
- Industry (SIC)
- GOLD AND SILVER ORES (1040) · industry map
- Exchange
- XNYS
- Market Cap
- $4.3B
- Employees
- 1,500
- List Date
- 2004-06-29
- CIK
- 0001854640
- Next Earnings
- 2026-10-29 (After-Close)
- EPS Forecast
- $0.38 (3 est.)
- Homepage
- https://www.centerragold.com
Centerra Gold Inc is principally focused on operating, developing, exploring and acquiring gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and other markets world-wide. The company reportable operating segments are Oksut; Mount Milligan; and Molybdenum. It derives maximum revenue from Mount Milligan segment. Geographically, it operates in Turkey, United States, and Canada.
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
| Month | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | -- | -3.12% | 19.96% | -9.47% | 5.94% | 18.53% | 6.37% |
| Feb | -- | 18.49% | -6.64% | -7.72% | -9.59% | 23.92% | 3.69% |
| Mar | -- | 2.18% | -1.07% | 13.87% | 11.60% | -13.85% | 2.55% |
| Apr | -2.23% | -7.78% | 2.43% | 2.36% | 6.69% | -5.38% | -0.65% |
| May | -16.06% | -11.62% | -9.60% | 12.40% | 11.41% | 2.32% | -1.86% |
| Jun | -7.85% | -15.52% | -3.85% | -4.14% | -4.25% | -7.36% | -7.16% |
| Jul | 3.61% | -11.49% | 3.92% | 0.90% | -6.46% | 10.12% | 0.10% |
| Aug | -5.33% | -26.54% | 0.50% | 8.09% | 17.72% | 30.15% | 4.10% |
| Sep | -8.59% | -0.90% | -16.81% | 7.67% | 26.83% | 0.00% | 1.37% |
| Oct | 6.69% | 0.86% | 8.55% | -2.34% | 4.27% | 2.32%* | 3.39% |
| Nov | -4.03% | 12.47% | 9.86% | -7.52% | 12.64% | -- | 4.68% |
| Dec | 5.64% | -6.16% | -3.56% | -4.37% | 8.21% | -- | -0.05% |
| Total | -26.66% | -44.60% | -1.43% | 6.41% | 115.93% | 66.43% | 19.35% |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
Here is the LLM Stock Analysis report for CGAU:
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: BEARISH (Confidence Level: 7/10)
Key Drivers: High volatility, overbought technical conditions, negative beta
Primary Risks: Potential reversal or consolidation in the short-term, further decline if news sentiment turns bearish
Investment Thesis: Neutral - CGAU's high volatility and overbought technical conditions warrant caution.
Recent News Sentiment Impact: Positive news headlines have not been sufficient to offset the stock's recent downturn.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction: Short-term (1-4 weeks): DOWN, Medium-term (1-3 months): NEUTRAL, Long-term (3-12 months): UP
Support/Resistance Levels:
- SMA 20: $16.98 (support)
- SMA 50: $16.58 (support)
- Upper Bollinger Band: $20.23 (resistance)
Momentum Signals:
- RSI interpretation: Overbought (>70) - potential sell signal
- MACD signal: Bullish (above signal line) but weakening
- Bollinger Bands position: Overbought
Volume Analysis: Volume is declining, indicating decreased institutional interest.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary:
- Extension and increase of corporate credit facility - positive sentiment
- Quarterly dividend announcement - positive sentiment
- Goldstrike sale - positive sentiment
- Financing news with Centerra Gold investment - positive sentiment
Sentiment Assessment: Overall positive, but insufficient to offset the stock's recent decline.
Catalyst Identification: Upcoming earnings and potential regulatory changes or updates on mining operations.
Market Narrative: Positive news headlines have not been sufficient to overcome the stock's technical issues.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Beta Interpretation: High risk relative to market (beta >1.5)
Volatility Regime: Current high volatility (>63%) - indicating increased risk
Options Market Signals:
- IV rank: 33.2% (Medium) - showing medium-high volatility
- Put/call ratio: 0.20 (Bullish sentiment)
- Unusual activity: Higher than usual options volume, potentially indicating market expectations of a move
Downside Protection: Support levels are present at SMA 20 and 50, but the stock's recent trend suggests potential for further decline.
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance: Gold mining sector performance has been weak, with CGAU underperforming its peers.
Institutional Activity: Institutional interest is waning, as volume declines and put/call ratios indicate bearish sentiment.
Correlation Analysis: CGAU has a moderate correlation (0.37) with the market - indicating some independence from broader trends.
Relative Valuation: CGAU's price-to-book ratio is above its historical average, suggesting potential for mean reversion or correction.
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- SMA 20: $16.98 (support)
- Upper Bollinger Band: $20.23 (resistance)
Breakout/Breakdown Levels: Potential breakdown below SMA 50 ($16.58) could trigger further decline.
Time-Sensitive Catalysts: Upcoming earnings and potential regulatory changes or updates on mining operations.
Risk Management:
- Stop-loss levels: Below SMA 20
- Position sizing considerations: Use stop-loss orders and consider scaling back positions if the stock breaks down below SMA 50.
Please note that this report is based on a hypothetical scenario and should not be taken as investment advice.
CGAU Options Activity & IV Rank
CGAU IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Options Flow
ATM Options Pricing
Chain Summary
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Estimated net dealer gamma is at the 88th percentile of this name's own daily history, near the high end of its range. This describes current positioning; it is not a forecast or a trading signal.
Net dealer gamma is an estimate of the aggregate gamma held by options market makers across this name's option chain, weighted by open interest. Dealer positions aren't public, so it uses a standard simplifying assumption: dealers are treated as long the calls and short the puts that are open. Actual dealer books can differ.
Gamma percentile ranks today's estimate against this name's own daily history, from 0% (the lowest reading on record) to 100% (the highest). Raw gamma scales with how much open interest a chain carries, so it isn't comparable across names; the percentile is. The badge marks the bottom 20% as low and the top 20% as high.
Tilts run from −1 to +1 and show how lopsided the estimated dealer exposure is. GEX tilt compares call gamma with put gamma. Vanna tilt describes how the hedge would shift if implied volatility changed, and charm tilt how it would shift with the passage of time.
This card describes estimated positioning and where it sits historically. It is not a forecast of price direction or volatility and not a trading signal. Market-wide view: Dealer positioning screener.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
Risk Metrics
Analysis Details
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
High volatility - stock moves more than market
CGAU Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-09-30Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Bank of Canada Custodian | $4.76M | 39.90% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Waratah Capital Advisors Ltd. | $2.38M | 19.95% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $2.04M | 17.08% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $1.31M | 10.97% | 2026-06-30 |
| 5 | SIG North Trading, ULC | $780.31K | 6.54% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | Wolverine Trading, LLC Custodian | $418.08K | 3.51% | 2025-09-30 |
| 7 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $149.08K | 1.25% | 2026-06-30 |
| 8 | Bank of Montreal Custodian | $95.05K | 0.80% | 2026-06-30 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citadel Advisors LLC Custodian | $2.21M | 67.52% | 2026-06-30 |
| 2 | Jane Street Group, LLC Custodian | $488.49K | 14.90% | 2026-06-30 |
| 3 | Susquehanna International Group, LLP Custodian | $237.90K | 7.26% | 2026-06-30 |
| 4 | Wolverine Trading, LLC Custodian | $200.72K | 6.12% | 2025-09-30 |
| 5 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $72.96K | 2.22% | 2026-06-30 |
| 6 | Bank of Montreal Custodian | $64.95K | 1.98% | 2026-06-30 |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF | VanEck | 0.54% | $142.7M | $26.6B | 2026-10-20 |
| 2 | GDXJ VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF | VanEck | 1.02% | $81.9M | $8.0B | 2026-10-20 |
| 3 | SCHC Schwab International Small-Cap Equity ETF | Nport | 0.13% | $7.4M | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 4 | FYLD Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield ETF | Nport | 1.01% | $6.5M | — | 2026-04-30 |
| 5 | FNDC Schwab Fundamental International Small Equity ETF | Nport | 0.14% | $4.4M | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 6 | VIDI Vident International Equity Strategy ETF | Nport | 0.41% | $1.9M | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 7 | GDMN WisdomTree Efficient Gold Plus Gold Miners Strategy Fund | Nport | 0.61% | $1.3M | — | 2026-05-31 |
| 8 | TLTD FlexShares Morningstar Developed Markets ex-US Factor Tilt Index Fund | Nport | 0.19% | $1.3M | — | 2026-07-31 |
| 9 | CCNR ALPS | CoreCommodity Natural Resources ETF | Nport | 0.21% | $912,958 | — | 2026-07-31 |
| 10 | IGE iShares North American Natural Resources ETF | iShares (BlackRock) | 0.10% | $854,485 | $831.2M | 2026-10-20 |
| 11 | PDN Invesco RAFI Developed Markets ex-U.S. Small-Mid ETF | Nport | 0.18% | $702,965 | — | 2026-04-30 |
| 12 | SYZ Lazard US Systematic Small Cap Equity ETF | Nport | 0.39% | $267,542 | — | 2026-06-30 |
| 13 | PMTL First Trust Indxx Quality Precious Metals Miners ETF | First Trust | 1.24% | $28,474 | $2.3M | 2026-10-20 |
| 14 | AUAU Global X Gold Miners ETF | Global X | 0.46% | $27,572 | — | 2026-10-21 |
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.