Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock(FLY)
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership.
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $16.00 – $73.80
- YTD
- +34.49%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 45.94
- Straddle Price
- $7.45
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.45
- Market Cap
- $6.5B
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 0.5% and dividend payments are stable.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.53% |
| Beta vs SPY | 1.00 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 9.28% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 9.24% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | -5.7pp (IV − HV30), ERP adj -25bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | +3.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 5 years explicit + fade |
| Forward Tilt (NTM/TTM) | ×1.03 (applied to P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S) |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $-0.3B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -32.4% |
| Book / Price | 33.4% — banking bias active (P/B is primary) |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 24.8% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | -151.1% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.02 |
| Quality Score | 1/6 — cyclical/struggling (5y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $39.42 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $43.24 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 140.4% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-0.3B |
| Market Cap | $3B |
| Horizon | Expected α | z Pred | Blended z | Rank % | Active? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21d | -0.6% ⚠ | +0.72 | +1.95 | 96.6% | ACTIVE |
| 42d | -0.7% ⚠ | +0.88 | +2.03 | 96.9% | ACTIVE |
| 63d | +0.2% | +0.89 | +2.04 | 96.3% | ACTIVE |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | median 35.7× · 4 peers |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | median 19.9× · 3 peers |
| Peer P/B | $212.20 | 22% | median 16.2× · 7 peers |
| Peer P/S | $15.57 | 22% | median 6.9× · 7 peers |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $39.42 | 0% | stability 0% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $42.93 | 56% | 49 strikes · skew +0.51 |
- Industry (SIC)
- GUIDED MISSILES & SPACE VEHICLES & PARTS (3760)
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $6.5B
Firefly Aerospace Inc is a space and defense technology company with an established track record of success providing comprehensive mission solutions to national security, government, and commercial customers. The company develops and provides space and defense technologies, including launch vehicles and spacecraft systems, supporting launch, transit, and in-orbit operations for government, commercial, and national security customers. It has only one operating segment. The majority of the company's revenue is derived from Spacecraft Solutions.
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +9.04% | 1 |
| Feb | -21.41% | 1 |
| Mar | +53.89% | 1 |
| Apr | +18.82% | 1 |
| May | +32.37% | 1 |
| Jun | -29.11% | 1 |
| Jul | — | 0 |
| Aug | -1.34% | 1 |
| Sep | -16.31% | 1 |
| Oct | -17.86% | 1 |
| Nov | -27.93% | 1 |
| Dec | +37.29% | 1 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
LLM Stock Analysis Report: FLY
Executive Summary
Overall assessment: BEARISH (Confidence level: 6/10)
Key drivers:
- Recent negative news headlines surrounding SpaceX's IPO and industry fatigue
- High volatility, reflected in beta of 3.11
- Trend indicators show a weak trend regime
Primary risks:
- Earnings miss potential due to high expectations
- Regulatory issues or delays affecting the space industry
Investment thesis: FLY is trading at a relatively high level, reflecting investor enthusiasm for the space industry. However, recent negative news headlines and high volatility may lead to a correction in the near term.
Recent news sentiment impact:
- Recent negative headlines (Benzinga) outweigh positive news from NASA's moon plans, indicating bearish sentiment
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction: Short-term: BEARISH (due to recent price action), Medium-term: NEUTRAL, Long-term: BULLISH
Support/Resistance Levels:
- Support: $28.68 (lower Bollinger Band)
- Resistance: $42.72 (SMA 20)
Momentum Signals:
- RSI interpretation: Neutral (40.35), indicating no clear buy or sell signal
- MACD signal: Bullish (bullish crossover above the signal line)
- Bollinger Bands position: Neutral, indicating no clear trend
Volume Analysis: Volume trends indicate a lack of institutional interest and a possible correction in the near term.
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary: Recent negative news headlines surrounding SpaceX's IPO and industry fatigue outweigh positive news from NASA's moon plans.
Sentiment Assessment: Aggregate sentiment is NEUTRAL, but with a bearish lean due to recent negative headlines.
Catalyst Identification: Upcoming earnings (if available) could impact the stock price.
Market Narrative: Recent news aligns with the short-term bearish trend direction, indicating potential for further price declines.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Beta Interpretation: High risk relative to market (beta 3.11)
Volatility Regime: Current volatility is higher than historical levels.
Options Market Signals:
- IV Rank: Medium
- Put/Call volume ratio: Bullish sentiment
- Expected Move: $7.45, indicating a potential range-bound trading environment
Downside Protection: Support at $28.68 (lower Bollinger Band)
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance: Relative strength vs sector/market is NEUTRAL.
Institutional Activity: Volume patterns suggest a lack of institutional interest and possible correction in the near term.
Correlation Analysis: Stock moves relative to market, indicating a high degree of correlation (0.34).
Relative Valuation: Position within trading range
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- Support: $28.68 (lower Bollinger Band)
- Resistance: $42.72 (SMA 20)
Breakout/Breakdown Levels:
- Breakout: Above $56.75 (upper Bollinger Band)
- Breakdown: Below $29.97 (SMA 200)
Time-Sensitive Catalysts: Upcoming earnings (if available) could impact the stock price.
Risk Management: Consider stop-loss levels at $35-$36, and position sizing considerations to manage risk.
Overall, FLY's recent performance has been driven by negative news headlines and high volatility. The stock is trading near resistance levels and may be due for a correction in the near term. Risk management strategies should be implemented to protect capital, and traders may want to consider short-term selling or hedging positions.
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-22 | After-Close | 21.07% | 15.02% | 0.71x | Within |
| 2025-11-12 | After-Close | 16.77% | 16.61% | 0.99x | Within |
| 2026-03-19 | After-Close | 11.04% | 1.51% | 0.14x | Within |
| 2026-05-04 | After-Close | 14.46% | 6.07% | 0.42x | Within |
- IV Rank (30D)
- 45.94
- IV Rank (7D)
- 100
- Avg IV
- 127.2%
- Straddle (30D)
- $7.45
- Straddle (7D)
- $4.05
- P/C Volume
- 0.45
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 3.11
- Correlation (SPY)
- 34.1%
- R²
- 0.12
- Ann. Volatility
- 115.6%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.7%
High volatility - stock moves more than market
Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $70.94M | 28.82% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $48.29M | 19.62% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $38.82M | 15.77% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | MASTERS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC | $28.47M | 11.57% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $19.13M | 7.77% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | Temasek Holdings (Private) Ltd | $11.39M | 4.63% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $10.51M | 4.27% | 2026-03-31 |
| 8 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $4.09M | 1.66% | 2026-03-31 |
| 9 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $2.98M | 1.21% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | PEAK6 LLC | $2.75M | 1.12% | 2026-03-31 |
| 11 | Walleye Trading LLC | $2.52M | 1.02% | 2026-03-31 |
| 12 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $2.24M | 0.91% | 2025-09-30 |
| 13 | Caption Management, LLC | $1.71M | 0.69% | 2026-03-31 |
| 14 | Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | $1.42M | 0.58% | 2026-03-31 |
| 15 | SYMMETRY PEAK MANAGEMENT LLC | $569.40K | 0.23% | 2026-03-31 |
| 16 | REX Advisers, LLC | $196.69K | 0.08% | 2026-03-31 |
| 17 | T3 Companies, LLC | $67.53K | 0.03% | 2026-03-31 |
| 18 | Walleye Capital LLC | $25.62K | 0.01% | 2026-03-31 |
| 19 | WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN Custodian | $2.85K | <0.01% | 2026-03-31 |
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JANE STREET GROUP, LLC Custodian | $22.68M | 23.22% | 2026-03-31 |
| 2 | SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP Custodian | $22.52M | 23.05% | 2026-03-31 |
| 3 | CITADEL ADVISORS LLC Custodian | $22.51M | 23.05% | 2026-03-31 |
| 4 | CITIGROUP INC Custodian | $11.27M | 11.54% | 2026-03-31 |
| 5 | IMC-Chicago, LLC Custodian | $6.76M | 6.92% | 2026-03-31 |
| 6 | GROUP ONE TRADING LLC Custodian | $3.78M | 3.87% | 2026-03-31 |
| 7 | Walleye Trading LLC | $3.35M | 3.43% | 2026-03-31 |
| 8 | WOLVERINE TRADING, LLC Custodian | $1.32M | 1.35% | 2025-09-30 |
| 9 | Point72 Asset Management, L.P. | $1.17M | 1.20% | 2026-03-31 |
| 10 | Walleye Capital LLC | $871.18K | 0.89% | 2026-03-31 |
| 11 | IEQ CAPITAL, LLC | $757.50K | 0.78% | 2026-03-31 |
| 12 | SIMPLEX TRADING, LLC Custodian | $680.43K | 0.70% | 2026-03-31 |
| 13 | REX Advisers, LLC | $3.53K | <0.01% | 2026-03-31 |
| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | Thomas Hansueli Zurbuchen | Director | Award (A) | +3,630 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-08 | Kevin G McAllister | Director | Award (A) | +3,630 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-08 | Christopher Plummer IV Emerson | Director | Award (A) | +3,630 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-08 | Kirk Michael Konert | Director | Award (A) | +3,630 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-08 | Pamela Joyce Braden | Director | Award (A) | +3,630 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-08 | Ryan Michael Boland | Director | Award (A) | +3,630 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-08 | Jonathan Donald Lusczakoski | Director | Award (A) | +3,630 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-06-03 | MICHAEL ROBERT GREENE | 10%+ Owner | Sell (S) | −40,000,000 | $48.00 | -$1.92B | EDGAR |
| 2026-05-19 | David Leigh Wheeler | General Counsel | Mixed | — | $23.72 | -$161.2K | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-20 | David Leigh Wheeler | General Counsel | Mixed | — | $23.67 | -$160.9K | EDGAR |
| 2026-04-10 | Remington Wu | Chief Accounting Officer | Award (A) | +10,423 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-03-25 | Ryan Michael Boland | Director | Other (J) | −2,706,474 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-03-20 | Jesung Kim | Chief Executive Officer | Award (A) | +52,836 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-03-12 | David Leigh Wheeler | General Counsel | Award (A) | +25,044 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2026-03-12 | Russell Shea Ferring | Chief Technology Officer | Award (A) | +15,756 | — | EDGAR |
| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MICHAEL ROBERT GREENE | 10%+ Owner | 17,688,857 | $563.74M | -$1.92B | 1 | 2026-06-03 |
| 2 | Marc Allen Weiser | Director | 1,208,543 | $38.52M | $0 | 1 | 2026-02-27 |
| 3 | Jesung Kim | Chief Executive Officer | 941,725 | $30.01M | $0 | 2 | 2026-03-20 |
| 4 | AEROEQUITY GP, LLC | 10%+ Owner | 652,502 | $20.80M | $4.50M | 1 | 2025-08-08 |
| 5 | Russell Shea Ferring | Chief Technology Officer | 542,124 | $17.28M | $0 | 2 | 2026-03-12 |
| 6 | Darren Ma | Chief Financial Officer | 260,943 | $8.32M | $0 | 2 | 2026-03-12 |
| 7 | David Leigh Wheeler | General Counsel | 146,523 | $4.67M | -$339.5K | 4 | 2026-05-19 |
| 8 | Ryan Michael Boland | Director | 130,842 | $4.17M | $0 | 3 | 2026-06-08 |
| 9 | Ramon Gilbert Sanchez | Chief Operating Officer | 118,493 | $3.78M | $0 | 2 | 2026-03-12 |
| 10 | Daniel Frank Fermon | Chief Operating Officer | 88,889 | $2.83M | $0 | 1 | 2025-11-26 |
| 11 | Remington Wu | Chief Accounting Officer | 40,423 | $1.29M | $0 | 2 | 2026-04-10 |
| 12 | Pamela Joyce Braden | Director | 31,216 | $994.9K | $400.0K | 3 | 2026-06-08 |
| 13 | Kirk Michael Konert | Director | 10,297 | $328.2K | $150.0K | 3 | 2026-06-08 |
| 14 | Jonathan Donald Lusczakoski | Director | 9,186 | $292.8K | $112.0K | 4 | 2026-06-08 |
| 15 | Thomas Hansueli Zurbuchen | Director | 7,764 | $247.4K | $36.0K | 3 | 2026-06-08 |
| 16 | Christopher Plummer IV Emerson | Director | 6,964 | $221.9K | $0 | 2 | 2026-06-08 |
| 17 | Kevin G McAllister | Director | 6,964 | $221.9K | $0 | 2 | 2026-06-08 |
| # | ETF | Provider | Weight | $ Exposure | ETF AUM | As Of |
|---|
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/E Ratio | 103.1 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.8 |
| P/S Ratio | 35.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | -23.1 |
| TTM Revenue | $0.2B |
| TTM Net Income | $-0.3B |
| TTM EPS | $0.31 |
| ROE | -32.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.08% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.03 |