DBVT DBV Technologies S.A. American Depositary Shares
XNAS
9.98
Delayed
Stock quote, options chain, IV rank, technicals, AI analysis, and institutional ownership. Iron condor setups Expected move IV rank history Fibonacci levels Insider trading
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $8.63 – $26.18
- YTD
- -47.61%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 27.35
- Straddle Price
- $3.27
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.03
- Market Cap
- $0.6B
- Open
- $10.11
- Day Range
- $9.89 – $10.14
- Volume
- 214,829
- Prev Close
- $9.75
A blended fair-value estimate combining up to six valuation methods. Each method is weighted by how well it fits the company — DCF down-weights for unprofitable names; DDM only fires for steady dividend payers; comparables down-weight when peer multiples disagree.
- DCF (quality-aware) — projects free cash flow with a horizon that scales to business quality. True compounders (quality 6/6) get 10 years explicit + 10 years fade before terminal; cyclical/struggling names (quality 0-1) get a 5-year terminal cliff. Quality is scored from ROE, gross margin, growth, FCF margin, debt load, and FCF consistency — the same factors that drive market premium for compounders.
- Market-Implied Growth (in Model Inputs) — reverse-DCF that answers "what growth rate is the market pricing in?". Lets you sanity-check the deviation: if implied growth is plausible for the business, the model's bearish flag may be wrong; if implausible, the market may be over-extrapolating.
- DDM (Gordon Growth Dividend Model) — values the stream of future dividends. Only used when trailing yield ≥ 2% and dividend payments are stable — below that the dividend is a token payout and Gordon (which values only the dividend stream) systematically underprices growth names, so those route to DCF + comparables + market anchor instead.
- P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/B, P/S — applies the peer-group median multiple to this company's per-share metric. Peers come from the same set as the "Related symbols" card. Earnings/sales metrics are forward-tilted by the company's recent revenue growth (capped at 25%) so they're comparable to peers' growth-embedded multiples — mimics how analysts use NTM rather than TTM. Per-multiple weights are biased by company quality (e.g. P/B down-weighted for asset-light tech).
- Market Anchor (SMA50) — the 50-day moving average, weighted by recent trading-range stability (tighter Bollinger bands → higher weight). Captures information fundamentals miss (forward consensus, sentiment, supply/demand) — but only when recent trading is steady enough that the market has converged on a view. During wild breakouts or breakdowns the anchor's weight collapses.
- Options Expected (B-L 30d) — the risk-neutral expected stock price at 30-day options expiration, derived from the full implied-volatility surface via Breeden-Litzenberger (second derivative of call price wrt strike → implied PDF, then E[S_T]). Forward-looking, captures all options-implied information (smile, skew, term structure) in one number. Weighted by chain liquidity. SP500-only at present (pre-computed daily). Backtest evidence: adds modest alpha across most bucket × holding combos.
- Blended value — weighted average. Confidence reflects how many methods fired and how tight peer dispersion is.
- Deviation pill — green when blended FV ≥ 10% above current price (undervalued); red when ≥ 10% below; grey otherwise.
| 10-yr Treasury (rf) | 4.96% |
| Beta vs SPY | 0.44 |
| Cost of Equity (CAPM) | 7.17% (VRP-adj) |
| WACC | 7.30% |
| Volatility Risk Premium | +108.3pp (IV − HV30) |
| Effective Tax Rate | 21.0% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY, DCF input) | -10.0% |
| DCF Horizon | 10 years explicit + fade |
| Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $-0.2B |
| Return on Equity (TTM) | -109.7% |
| Book / Price | 5.6% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 100.0% |
| FCF Margin (TTM) | -3399.0% |
| Debt / Equity | 0.00 |
| Quality Score | 2/6 — normal (10y DCF) |
| SMA 50 | $11.88 (Market Anchor value) |
| SMA 20 / Bollinger Mid | $9.89 |
| Bollinger Width / SMA20 | 333.2% (drives anchor stability) |
| Net Debt | $-0.2B |
| Market Cap | $3B |
| Method | Implied Price | Weight | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF | n/a | 0% | |
| DDM (Gordon) | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/E | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | n/a | 0% | |
| Peer P/B | $3.34 | 20% | median 5.9× · 3 peers |
| Peer P/S | n/a | 0% | |
| Market Anchor (SMA50) | $11.88 | 80% | stability 78% (BB-width) |
| Options Expected (B-L 30d) | $9.63 | 0% | 5 strikes · skew +0.26 |

- Industry (SIC)
- BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DIAGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES) (2836) · industry map
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Market Cap
- $0.6B
- Employees
- 170
- List Date
- 2014-10-22
- CIK
- 0001613780
- Next Earnings
- 2026-10-27
- EPS Forecast
- ($0.60) (1 est.)
- Headquarters
- Chatillon, I0
- Homepage
- https://www.dbv-technologies.com
DBV Technologies SA is a clinical-stage specialty biopharmaceutical company focused on changing the field of immunotherapy by developing a novel technology platform called Viaskin. The therapeutic approach is based on epicutaneous immunotherapy or EPIT, its proprietary method of delivering biologically active compounds to the immune system through intact skin using Viaskin, an epicutaneous patch (i.e., a skin patch). Its main product candidate under development is Viaskin Peanut for the treatment of peanut-allergic patients. In addition, the company also has earlier-stage food allergy programs…
Each spoke is this symbol's rank within its sector (0–100; the dotted ring marks the sector median at 50). Higher is more constructive for a long. One spoke — News sentiment — is an absolute reading, not a sector rank. Grayed spokes have no data. A fuller shape is a summary, not a recommendation.
| Month | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 86.91% | -13.56% | -12.00% | -3.20% | 30.00% | 13.44% | 16.93% |
| Feb | -2.90% | -15.19% | 5.84% | -7.87% | 9.61% | -2.78% | -2.21% |
| Mar | -2.38% | 20.45% | 16.55% | -9.75% | 72.22% | -10.15% | 14.49% |
| Apr | 22.74% | -18.87% | -12.87% | -15.18% | 39.47% | 2.44% | 2.95% |
| May | -4.88% | 9.03% | 30.00% | -18.84% | -3.02% | -3.88% | 1.40% |
| Jun | -5.37% | 65.58% | -3.06% | -32.12% | 18.34% | -12.77% | 5.10% |
| Jul | -8.61% | 6.69% | -21.07% | 18.39% | -18.88% | -14.72% | -6.37% |
| Aug | 10.24% | -19.92% | -1.86% | -5.26% | 7.22% | 1.77% | -1.30% |
| Sep | -12.50% | -8.29% | -13.38% | -19.54% | 8.93% | -12.37% | -9.53% |
| Oct | -36.61% | -14.61% | -24.06% | 6.63% | 45.38% | -10.97%* | -5.71% |
| Nov | -7.69% | -14.01% | -27.45% | 2.47% | -8.14% | -- | -10.96% |
| Dec | -44.25% | 10.07% | 28.24% | -22.17% | 47.69% | -- | 3.92% |
| Total | -43.71% | -18.10% | -43.49% | -71.14% | 634.02% | -42.37% | 69.20% |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
Here is my response to the prompt:
LLM Stock Analysis Report for DBVT
Executive Summary
- Overall Assessment: NEUTRAL (confidence level: 6/10)
- Key Drivers and Primary Risks: Recent news sentiment aligns with technical signals, with positive news driving short-term momentum. However, high volatility and beta >1.0 indicate potential risk.
- 2-3 Sentence Investment Thesis: DBVT's recent price movement is driven by a mix of positive news and market dynamics. While the stock shows promise in the short term, investors should be cautious due to above-average volatility and beta.
- Recent News Sentiment Impact: Recent headlines are generally positive, with news articles highlighting company announcements and milestones.
Technical Analysis
- Trend Direction: Short-term (1-4 weeks): Bullish; Medium-term (1-3 months): Neutral; Long-term (3-12 months): Bearish
- Support/Resistance Levels: Key levels to watch are $14.98 (upper Bollinger Band), $14.19 (SMA 20), and $13.39 (lower Bollinger Band).
- Momentum Signals:
- RSI interpretation: Neutral (42.72)
- MACD signal: Bearish (histogram -0.17)
- Bollinger Bands position: Squeeze
- Volume Analysis: Volume trends indicate caution, with volume rate of change -15.06% and on-balance volume declining.
News & Sentiment Analysis
- Recent Headlines Summary: Recent news articles highlight company announcements and milestones, driving positive sentiment.
- Sentiment Assessment: Overall sentiment is NEUTRAL, with 3/5 articles having a positive tone.
- Catalyst Identification: Upcoming events include the BLA submission update for the VIASKIN Peanut Patch in Children Aged 4 through 7 Years.
- Market Narrative: Recent news aligns with technical signals, driving short-term momentum.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
- Beta Interpretation: Beta >1.0 indicates high risk relative to market.
- Volatility Regime: Current volatility is above historical levels (HV20 49.9%, HV30 45.4%).
- Options Market Signals: IV rank is low (8.0%), suggesting historically low volatility; put/call ratios indicate bearish sentiment.
Market Context & Positioning
- Sector Performance: DBVT's sector performance is mixed, with no clear trend.
- Institutional Activity: Institutional interest is moderate, with 1 call vs 81 puts in options activity.
- Correlation Analysis: DBVT moves with market amplification (correlation: 0.17).
- Relative Valuation: Position within trading range.
Key Levels & Action Items
- Critical Price Levels: Support at $14.19 (SMA 20) and resistance at $14.98 (upper Bollinger Band).
- Breakout/Breakdown Levels: Breakout above $15.00 or breakdown below $13.50 could trigger significant moves.
- Time-Sensitive Catalysts: BLA submission update for the VIASKIN Peanut Patch in Children Aged 4 through 7 Years is a key event to watch.
- Risk Management: Stop-loss levels should be set at $12.50, with position sizing considerations.
This comprehensive analysis assesses DBVT's current market situation, highlighting both bullish and bearish signals. The recent news sentiment aligns with technical indicators, driving short-term momentum. However, high volatility and beta >1.0 indicate potential risk. As a result, investors should exercise caution when considering a trade.
| Earnings Date | Timing | Expected Move | Actual Move | Ratio | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-03 | unknown | 2.60% | 5.85% | 2.25x | Exceeded |
| 2023-10-31 | After-Close | 135.65% | 0.99% | 0.01x | Within |
| 2024-03-07 | After-Close | 194.90% | 3.87% | 0.02x | Within |
| 2024-07-30 | unknown | 258.68% | 2.32% | 0.01x | Within |
| 2024-10-22 | unknown | 360.71% | 2.84% | 0.01x | Within |
| 2024-11-06 | unknown | 327.92% | 4.00% | 0.01x | Within |
Earnings calendar: this week’s reports with expected vs actual moves →
DBVT Options Activity & IV Rank
DBVT IV rank history, 52-week IV rank and IV percentile →
Volatility Metrics
Options Flow
ATM Options Pricing
Chain Summary
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
Risk Metrics
Analysis Details
Data Points: 251
Period: 252 trading days
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
| Investor | Value | Share of their portfolio | Rank | Q/Q shares | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duquesne Family Office Family office Stanley Druckenmiller | $6.3M | #76 of 86 | 0.0% | 13F | |
| Millennium Management Hedge fund Izzy Englander | $4.4M | #2127 of 3716 | -16.0% | 13F | |
| Citadel Hedge fund Ken Griffin | $374K | #4818 of 6285 | new | 13F | |
| Point72 Hedge fund Steve Cohen | $199K | #1785 of 1945 | new | 13F | |
| Rockefeller Capital Management Family office Rockefeller family | $20K | #3725 of 4729 | new | 13F |
Hedge funds, activists, holding companies and family offices we track, from their latest 13F (quarter-end value) and Form 4 filings in the last 3 years. Family offices · all institutions
DBVT Institutional Ownership (13F)
Latest filings — 2026-09-30Institutional managers with $100M+ AUM file Form 13F-HR quarterly, due 45 days after quarter end. Holdings are reported gross at quarter-end market value — they are a snapshot, not a real-time position.
- Shares — long equity positions in this name, aggregated across share classes.
- Calls / Puts — notional value of long call / put exposure where this ticker is the underlying.
- % of Float — holder's reported shares divided by the latest diluted shares outstanding. Sums above 100% indicate large custodian / prime broker positions where the same shares are reported by multiple filers.
- Custodian badge — filers with more than 5,000 holdings are typically broker-dealers / custodians reporting customer-held shares, not active managers.
Each filer is counted once at its latest 13F-HR filing. New filings are ingested on a weekly cadence.
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
| # | Filer | Notional Value | % of Total | Period |
|---|
DBVT Insider Trading (Form 4)
Latest: 2026-07-31| Filed | Reporter | Role | Action | Shares | Avg Price | Net $ | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Pharis Mohideen | Chief Medical Officer | Sell (S) | −464 | $2.70 | -$1.3K | EDGAR |
| 2026-02-02 | Pharis Mohideen | Chief Medical Officer | Sell (S) | −534 | $4.86 | -$2.6K | EDGAR |
| 2026-01-14 | 667, L.P. | Director | Exer (M) | — | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-12-19 | SA Bpifrance | Sell (S) | −16,845,465 | $4.60 | -$77.42M | EDGAR | |
| 2025-11-25 | Pharis Mohideen | Chief Medical Officer | Mixed | +35,880 | $2.86 | -$23.2K | EDGAR |
| 2025-11-24 | Virginie Boucinha | Chief Financial Officer | Award (A) | +32,000 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-11-24 | Daniel Tasse | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | Grant (A) | +964,000 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-11-24 | Kevin Michael Trapp | Chief Commercial Officer | Award (A) | +55,000 | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-07-31 | Pharis Mohideen | Chief Medical Officer | Sell (S) | −464 | $2.22 | -$1.0K | EDGAR |
| 2025-05-27 | Pharis Mohideen | Chief Medical Officer | Sell (S) | −397 | $1.84 | -$730 | EDGAR |
| 2025-03-31 | Felix Baker | Director | Grant (A) | +327,658,752 RSU | — | EDGAR | |
| 2025-01-31 | Pharis Mohideen | Chief Medical Officer | Sell (S) | −600 | $0.85 | -$510 | EDGAR |
| 2024-12-05 | Daniel Tasse | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | Grant (A) | +813,200 opt | — | EDGAR | |
| 2024-11-27 | Pharis Mohideen | Chief Medical Officer | Sell (S) | −907 | $0.55 | -$503 | EDGAR |
| 2024-11-25 | Pharis Mohideen | Chief Medical Officer | Mixed | +32,650 | $0.54 | -$1.3K | EDGAR |
DBVT Insider Holdings
5 insiders · @ $9.98| # | Insider | Role | Shares | Disclosed Exposure | Lifetime OM Net | Filings | Last Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SA Bpifrance | 226,133 | $2.26M | -$77.42M | 1 | 2025-12-19 | |
| 2 | Pharis Mohideen | Chief Medical Officer | 144,531 | $1.44M | -$45.0K | 14 | 2026-07-31 |
| 3 | Virginie Boucinha | Chief Financial Officer | 70,000 | $698.6K | $0 | 3 | 2025-11-24 |
| 4 | Kevin Michael Trapp | Chief Commercial Officer | 55,000 | $548.9K | $0 | 1 | 2025-11-24 |
| 5 | Daniel Tasse | CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER | 1,709 | $17.1K | $14.2K | 6 | 2025-11-24 |
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
Quarterly figures (12 quarters)
| Quarter | Period End | Revenue | Net Income | Diluted EPS | Op. Cash Flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 '26 | 2026-06-30 | $700.00K | $-50.40M | $-0.12 | $-52.60M |
| Q1 '26 | 2026-03-31 | $900.00K | $-47.60M | $-0.11 | $-49.10M |
| Q4 '25 | 2025-12-31 | $645.00K | $-44.83M | $-0.23 | $-35.17M |
| Q3 '25 | 2025-09-30 | $2.77M | $-33.16M | $-0.24 | $-32.44M |
| Q2 '25 | 2025-06-30 | $1.50M | $-41.90M | $-0.31 | $-33.90M |
| Q1 '25 | 2025-03-31 | $800.00K | $-27.10M | $-0.26 | $-19.70M |
| Q4 '24 | 2024-12-31 | $511.00K | $-23.02M | $-0.22 | $-12.25M |
| Q3 '24 | 2024-09-30 | $1.07M | $-30.44M | $-0.32 | $-22.46M |
| Q2 '24 | 2024-06-30 | $1.16M | $-33.12M | $-0.34 | $-35.07M |
| Q1 '24 | 2024-03-31 | $1.41M | $-27.34M | $-0.28 | $-34.69M |
| Q4 '23 | 2023-12-31 | $8.88M | $-11.19M | $2.49 | $-13.69M |
| Q3 '23 | 2023-09-30 | $2.37M | $-16.74M | $-0.85 | $-19.57M |
Ratios derived from TTM financials and the current market price, sampled daily. History chart shows how expensive the stock is today relative to its own recent past.
- P/E — price / TTM earnings. Rough market rule: 10–15 value, 15–25 market, >30 growth/premium. Negative when earnings are negative.
- P/B — price / book value. Useful for financials and asset-heavy names; meaningless for asset-light software.
- P/S — price / TTM revenue. Useful when earnings are negative or noisy (early-stage growth).
- EV/EBITDA — capital-structure-neutral. <10 cheap, 10–15 reasonable, >20 rich. Good for comparing across leverage profiles.
- EV/Sales — like P/S but accounts for debt + cash. Compare within sector.
- ROE — return on equity. >15% strong, >25% exceptional. Caution: high leverage inflates ROE.
- ROA — return on assets. Leverage-neutral; >5% solid, >10% exceptional.
- Div Yield — annual dividend / price. Compare to 10Y Treasury; sustained yield >6% often signals distress.
- FCF Yield — free cash flow / market cap. >5% is attractive; negative means burning cash.
- Debt/Equity — leverage. <1 conservative, >2 aggressive. Sector-dependent (utilities naturally high, tech low).
- Current Ratio — short-term liquidity. >1.5 comfortable, <1 raises short-term solvency flags.
- Compare current level to the 3-year band: near the high end = relatively expensive; near the low = relatively cheap.
- Multiples expanding while earnings are flat = sentiment-driven rally.
- Multiples compressing while earnings grow = value coming from fundamentals.
Regulatory short-interest reports publish on a bi-weekly settlement cadence; short-volume is reported daily by the trade-reporting facilities. Float is derived from insider-ownership filings.
- Short Interest — total shares currently sold short as of the settlement date. Lags real time by ~8 business days.
- SI % of Float — short interest / free float. The key crowding metric.
- Days to Cover — short interest / avg daily volume. How many full trading days it would take shorts to buy back. High DTC + catalyst = squeeze fuel.
- Short Vol Ratio — today's short-sale volume / total volume. Intraday selling pressure proxy (not the same as short interest).
- Free Float — shares available for public trading (total shares minus insider / restricted).
- Float % — free float / shares outstanding. <50% = tightly held, more prone to squeezes.
- SI % of Float < 5% — typical, no particular signal.
- 5–15% — elevated; watch for catalysts (earnings, guidance, macro).
- 15–30% — heavily shorted; tight-float names in this range have produced notable squeezes historically.
- >30% — extreme; borrow is likely expensive and squeeze risk is material.
- Days to Cover > 5 combined with high SI% amplifies squeeze potential.
- Trend matters more than level. Rapidly rising short interest often precedes negative catalysts or heavy hedging.
- A sudden drop in SI after a rally may indicate a squeeze in progress.
Short interest is reported mid-month and end-of-month; short volume is daily.