Prediction Markets
Trending predictions from Kalshi & Polymarket — sorted by 24-hour trading volume.
Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.
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Trending prediction markets
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Contracts traded in past 24 hours
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Most active category
Compares Kalshi prediction market prices against Atlanta Fed SOFR-implied and Fed Watch (/ZQ futures) probabilities. Divergences may indicate mispricing opportunities.
Contracts where Kalshi's implied probability diverges from Fed Watch (/ZQ) by more than the threshold. Each row is a directional trade idea: buy the side Kalshi under-prices. EV uses /ZQ's probability as fair value. Sorted by return on capital.
| Meeting | Outcome | Action | Kalshi Yes | /ZQ Fair | Gap | Cost | EV / $ cap | Ticker |
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This is a signal, not a guarantee. /ZQ is deeper and usually smarter, but large gaps can reflect liquidity, resolution-criteria differences, or events /ZQ can't price (e.g. emergency cuts).
| Prediction | Category | Yes Price | Payout | Change | 24h Volume | Open Interest | Closes |
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| Market | Category | Price | 1d | 7d | 30d | Vol Surge | $ Volume | Spread | Score |
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