Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) Stock Quote & Options Analysis | Frenzy Capital
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $25.40 – $28.37
- YTD
- +2.09%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 66.94
- Straddle Price
- $10.00
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 1.69
- Industry (SIC)
- COMMODITY CONTRACTS BROKERS & DEALERS (6221)
- Exchange
- ARCX
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +1.73% | 6 |
| Feb | +1.79% | 6 |
| Mar | +2.92% | 6 |
| Apr | +2.34% | 6 |
| May | -0.87% | 6 |
| Jun | -3.86% | 5 |
| Jul | +0.83% | 5 |
| Aug | +2.58% | 5 |
| Sep | +0.02% | 5 |
| Oct | -0.10% | 5 |
| Nov | +0.75% | 5 |
| Dec | -1.67% | 5 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 57.6 | Neutral |
| MACD | 0.330 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | $27.05 | Below |
| SMA 200 | $26.54 | Below |
| Bollinger Bands | Neutral | |
| ADX | 33.1 | Trend |
| HV 30 | 9.7% |
LLM Stock Analysis Report - DBA
Executive Summary
BULLISH (Confidence Level: 7/10)
Key Drivers:
- Strong technical momentum from MACD crossover
- Recent news headlines highlighting commodity prices' surge
- Low volatility indicating a low-risk environment
Primary Risks:
- Potential for profit taking or consolidation
- Regulatory changes affecting agricultural commodities
Investment Thesis:
DBA is poised to continue its uptrend as the commodity price surge persists. With a bullish MACD crossover and low volatility, this ETF presents a relatively low-risk opportunity for investors seeking exposure to agriculture and commodity markets.
Recent News Sentiment Impact:
The recent news headlines highlight the commodity prices' surge, which has contributed to DBA's strong performance. The neutral sentiment in these articles suggests that investors are primarily focused on the sector's strength rather than any specific company or event.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction:
- Short-term (1-4 weeks): Bullish
- Medium-term (1-3 months): Bullish
- Long-term (3-12 months): Bullish
Support/Resistance Levels:
- Lower band: $26.53
- Middle line: $27.53
- Upper band: $28.52
Momentum Signals:
- RSI interpretation: Neutral (57.61)
- MACD signal: Bullish (0.33 / Signal: 0.03 / Histogram: 0.30)
- Bollinger Bands position: Neutral (Price touching upper band)
Volume Analysis:
- Volume SMA 20: 1773110.22
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): 30279962.84
- Volume Rate of Change: 86.47% (indicating strong buying pressure)
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary:
The recent news headlines highlight the surge in commodity prices, with articles focusing on the sector's strength rather than any specific company or event.
Sentiment Assessment:
Neutral sentiment dominates, reflecting investors' focus on the sector's performance rather than individual companies.
Catalyst Identification:
- Upcoming events: Earnings reports from agricultural companies
- Product launches: New commodity-backed products
Market Narrative:
The news headlines align with DBA's technical signals, indicating a strong uptrend driven by commodity prices' surge. The neutral sentiment suggests that investors are primarily focused on the sector's strength rather than any specific company or event.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Risk Assessment:
Low risk (Beta: 0.06)
Volatility Regime:
Current vs historical volatility levels: Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Options Market Signals:
- IV rank: Medium (66.9%)
- Put/call ratios: Bearish sentiment
- Unusual activity: None notable
Downside Protection:
Support levels: $26.53, $27.05, and $27.53
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance:
Relative strength vs sector/market: Strong performance in agriculture and commodity sectors
Institutional Activity:
Volume patterns suggesting institutional interest:
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): 30279962.84
- Volume Rate of Change: 86.47%
Correlation Analysis:
How stock moves relative to market (R-squared interpretation): Low correlation with the broader market
Relative Valuation:
Position within trading range: Above the middle line, suggesting a strong uptrend
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- Support: $26.53 and $27.05
- Resistance: $28.52
Breakout/Breakdown Levels:
- Critical support: $27.05
- Breakout level: $28.52
Time-Sensitive Catalysts:
Earnings reports from agricultural companies and product launches
Risk Management:
Stop-loss levels: Consider placing a stop-loss order around $26.53 to limit potential losses
| Published | Title | Publisher | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-30 | What's Behind the Surge in Commodity Prices? | Zacks Investment Research | |
| 2024-04-30 | Top 5 Commodity ETFs (SA Quant) | Seeking Alpha | |
| 2024-04-11 | Agricultural ETF (DBA) Hits New 52-Week High | Zacks Investment Research | |
| 2024-04-03 | 5 Commodity ETFs Riding High in 2024 | Zacks Investment Research | |
| 2024-03-22 | Agriculture Commodities Rise To 9-Year Highs, Cocoa Prices Skyrocket: Chocolate Lovers Brace For Hyperinflation | Benzinga | |
| 2024-03-18 | Commodities Overtake Stocks in 2024: Mean Reversion or Regime Change? | Investing.com | |
| 2023-10-10 | 3 Key Market Indicators to Watch During Uncertain Times | Investing.com | |
| 2023-09-14 | 5 Ways to Hedge Against Inflation With ETFs | Zacks Investment Research |
- IV Rank (30D)
- 66.94
- IV Rank (7D)
- 66.94
- Avg IV
- 55.8%
- Straddle (30D)
- $10.00
- Straddle (7D)
- $10.00
- P/C Volume
- 1.69
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
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- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 0.06
- Correlation (SPY)
- 7.2%
- R²
- 0.01
- Ann. Volatility
- 10.8%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.5%
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.