Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) Stock Quote & Options Analysis | Frenzy Capital
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $66.62 – $134.31
- YTD
- +44.21%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 94.26
- Straddle Price
- $7.22
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.25
- Market Cap
- $64.8B
- Industry (SIC)
- PETROLEUM REFINING (2911)
- Exchange
- XASE
- Market Cap
- $64.8B
Imperial Oil Ltd is an integrated oil company active in all phases of the petroleum industry in Canada, including the exploration for, and production and sale of, crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, and petrochemicals. It also pursues lower-emission business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, and lithium. The company's reportable segments are Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical. Maximum revenue for the company is generated from its Downstream segment, which refines crude oil into petroleum products and distributes and market these produc…
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +8.32% | 6 |
| Feb | +5.99% | 6 |
| Mar | +5.09% | 6 |
| Apr | +0.16% | 6 |
| May | +2.79% | 6 |
| Jun | -0.52% | 5 |
| Jul | +0.92% | 5 |
| Aug | +5.74% | 5 |
| Sep | +3.10% | 5 |
| Oct | +8.05% | 5 |
| Nov | +1.95% | 5 |
| Dec | -7.93% | 5 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 53.2 | Neutral |
| MACD | 1.153 | Bullish |
| SMA 50 | $124.79 | Above |
| SMA 200 | $100.56 | Above |
| Bollinger Bands | Neutral | |
| ADX | 21.2 | Weak Trend |
| HV 30 | 28.1% |
LLM Stock Analysis Report: IMO
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: NEUTRAL (Confidence Level: 6/10)
Key Drivers:
- Technical indicators suggest a consolidating trend, with momentum oscillators indicating neutral sentiment.
- Recent news headlines have been positive, highlighting Imperial Oil's projects and Indigenous excellence initiatives.
Primary Risks:
- Volatility is relatively low compared to the broader market, which may indicate limited upside potential.
- Options market signals are bearish, suggesting investors are pricing in a potential move lower.
Investment Thesis: IMO's recent price action suggests a consolidating trend, with technical indicators indicating neutral sentiment. The stock's positive news headlines and low volatility may make it an attractive entry point for investors seeking to ride the next upward wave.
Recent News Sentiment Impact: Positive news headlines have had a mildly bullish impact on the stock's price, contributing to its recent gains.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction:
- Short-term (1-4 weeks): Consolidating
- Medium-term (1-3 months): Uptrend
- Long-term (3-12 months): Neutral
Support/Resistance Levels:
- Upper: $133.59 (Bollinger Band)
- Middle: $127.41 (SMA 20 and EMA 12)
- Lower: $121.23 (Bollinger Band)
Momentum Signals:
- RSI interpretation: Neutral (53.18 < 70, >30)
- MACD signal: Bullish (1.15 / Signal: 0.28 / Histogram: 0.88)
- Bollinger Bands position: Neutral
Volume Analysis:
- Volume SMA 20: 574045.39
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): 17534745.05
- Volume Rate of Change: 49.22%
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary:
- Imperial Oil projects up to 460,000 barrels per day of production in 2026.
- Positive sentiment surrounding Indigenous excellence initiatives.
Sentiment Assessment: Positive (average sentiment from recent news headlines)
Catalyst Identification:
- Upcoming earnings release may provide additional insight into the company's performance and outlook.
- Regulatory changes or industry developments could impact Imperial Oil's operations and stock price.
Market Narrative: Recent positive news headlines have contributed to IMO's upward trend, but the options market signals suggest a potential move lower in the short term.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Beta Interpretation:
- Beta: 0.22 (vs SPY) - Low volatility; stock moves less than market.
Volatility Regime:
- Current vs historical volatility levels: Low relative to historical norms.
Options Market Signals:
- IV Rank: 94.3% (High) - Shows if volatility is historically high/low
- Current IV: 136.8%
- Expected Move: $7.22 (14 DTE), 7-DTE: $7.22
Downside Protection:
- Support levels: Middle ($127.41), Lower ($121.23)
- Risk management considerations: Stop-loss levels and position sizing considerations
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance:
- Relative strength vs sector/market: Neutral (IMO's price action is not strongly correlated with the broader market)
Institutional Activity:
- Volume patterns suggesting institutional interest: High volume in recent trading periods.
Correlation Analysis:
- How stock moves relative to market (R-squared interpretation): Low correlation; stock moves independently of the broader market
Relative Valuation:
- Position within trading range: Neutral (IMO's price action is trading near its long-term mean)
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- Support/resistance to monitor: Middle ($127.41), Lower ($121.23)
Breakout/Breakdown Levels:
- Technical levels that could trigger significant moves: Upper ($133.59) and Lower ($121.23) Bollinger Bands
Time-Sensitive Catalysts:
- Earnings release date (no specific date provided)
- Regulatory changes or industry developments (no specific dates provided)
Risk Management:
- Stop-loss levels and position sizing considerations: Based on current volatility and risk metrics, consider using stop-loss orders at $126.79 (EMA 26) or $125.41 (SMA 50) to limit potential losses.
This analysis provides a comprehensive overview of IMO's technical, news, and options data. The report highlights the stock's consolidating trend, positive news headlines, and low volatility, which may make it an attractive entry point for investors seeking to ride the next upward wave. However, options market signals suggest a potential move lower in the short term, indicating a need for caution and risk management considerations.
| Published | Title | Publisher | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | Imperial Oil Projects Up To 460,000 Barrels Per Day Of Production In 2026 | Benzinga | |
| 2025-12-12 | 4 Canadian Oil Stocks That Are Filling the Heavy Crude Gap | Investing.com | |
| 2025-01-29 | Indspire Celebrates Indigenous Excellence With Announcement of 2025 Indspire Awards Recipients | GlobeNewswire Inc. | |
| 2025-01-29 | Indspire célèbre l'excellence autochtone en annonçant les noms des lauréats des prix Indspire 2025 | GlobeNewswire Inc. | |
| 2024-09-16 | Imperial's Shares Gain 16% YTD: Should You Buy or Wait for Now? | Benzinga | |
| 2024-08-09 | Imperial (IMO) Q2 Earnings Rise Y/Y, Sales Lag Estimates | Zacks Investment Research | |
| 2024-07-19 | Destructive Wildfires Disrupt Canadian Oil Sands Production - Zacks Investment Research | Zacks Investment Research | |
| 2024-07-10 | Cenovus Energy (CVE) Demobilizes Workers Over Wildfire Risks - Zacks Investment Research | Zacks Investment Research |
- IV Rank (30D)
- 94.26
- IV Rank (7D)
- 94.26
- Avg IV
- 136.8%
- Straddle (30D)
- $7.22
- Straddle (7D)
- $7.22
- P/C Volume
- 0.25
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR25 and BF25 from the live options chain. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
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Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 0.22
- Correlation (SPY)
- 10.7%
- R²
- 0.01
- Ann. Volatility
- 25.6%
- SPY Volatility
- 12.5%
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
Quarterly filings sourced from SEC 10-Q / 10-K reports. TTM tiles aggregate the most recent four quarters; bars show the last ~12 quarters oldest → newest.
- Revenue — top-line sales. Look for consistent YoY growth; seasonal businesses need same-quarter comparisons (Q4 '24 vs Q4 '23).
- Net Income — bottom-line profit after all expenses. Can be volatile from one-time items; red bars = net loss.
- Diluted EPS — net income per share assuming options/converts are exercised. Direct input to the P/E ratio.
- Operating Cash Flow — cash generated from core operations, before capex and financing. Harder to manipulate than net income; growing OCF is a quality signal.
- Sequential growth — quarter-over-quarter trend. Accelerating bars are a momentum signal.
- YoY growth — compare to the same quarter a year earlier to remove seasonality.
- Quality — OCF should roughly track Net Income over time. Large divergence (net income ≫ OCF) flags accruals risk.
- Margins — scan the bar ratios: Net Income / Revenue tells you margin trend without needing a separate chart.
TTM (trailing-twelve-month) smooths seasonality and is used for the P/E calculation. Filings appear 30–90 days after the period closes.
| P/B Ratio | 3.8 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.0 |
| ROE | 14.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.65% |
| Debt/Equity | 0.18 |