MRAL GraniteShares 2x Long MARA Daily ETF
ETF 35.09 DelayedETF quote, holdings, sector allocation, technicals, and options analytics. Fibonacci levels
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $22.14 – $366.30
- YTD
- -36.31%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 8.27
- Straddle Price
- $8.18
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 2.58
GraniteShares 2x Long MARA Daily ETF (MRAL) ETF
- Exchange
- XNAS
- Inception
- 2025-03-06
- Has Options
- Yes
| Symbol | Name | Weight % | Asset Class | Country |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Marex | 165.06% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| — | Clear Street | 28.43% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| — | Cantor Fitzgerald | 6.18% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| — | Natixis Securities | 0.01% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| — | Nomura Securities | 0.01% | Derivative (equity) | US |
| Category | Weight | Value | Positions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derivative (equity) | 199.68% | $81.4M | 5 |
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +1.25% | 1 |
| Feb | -17.00% | 1 |
| Mar | -33.22% | 2 |
| Apr | +61.42% | 2 |
| May | +12.71% | 2 |
| Jun | +6.49% | 2 |
| Jul | -16.58% | 2 |
| Aug | -5.51% | 2 |
| Sep | +19.00% | 2 |
| Oct | -7.87% | 2 |
| Nov | -62.71% | 1 |
| Dec | -36.43% | 1 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
LLM Stock Analysis Report: MRAL
Executive Summary
Overall Assessment: BEARISH (Confidence Level: 7/10)
Key Drivers:
- Bearish momentum signals from MACD
- High volatility, high beta
- Negative news sentiment from recent headlines
Primary Risks:
- Technical breakdown below $35.25 support level
- Earnings miss or disappointing guidance
- Regulatory issues impacting the sector
Investment Thesis: MRAL is poised for a technical correction due to bearish momentum signals and high volatility. While the options market suggests a moderate move, the stock's beta and historical volatility indicate a higher risk profile.
Recent News Sentiment Impact: The recent news headlines, particularly the reverse split announcement, have had a neutral impact on the stock price.
Technical Analysis
Trend Direction:
- Short-term: Bearish
- Medium-term: Neutral
- Long-term: Bullish
Support/Resistance Levels:
- Resistance: $47.24 (SMA 20)
- Support: $35.25 (Bollinger Bands Lower Band)
Momentum Signals:
- RSI: 39.46 (neutral)
- MACD: -5.56 / Signal: -0.16 / Histogram: -5.40 (bearish)
- Bollinger Bands: Price touching lower band = oversold
Volume Analysis:
- Volume SMA 20: 83413.20
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): -240875.57
- Volume Rate of Change: -43.36% (indicating a decline in buying pressure)
News & Sentiment Analysis
Recent Headlines Summary:
- GraniteShares Announces Reverse Split of MRAL, MSTP, and SMCL (GlobeNewswire Inc., 2026-03-27) - Neutral sentiment
Sentiment Assessment:
- Aggregate news sentiment: NEUTRAL
Catalyst Identification:
- No immediate catalysts identified; focus on technical signals and risk management.
Market Narrative:
- The recent headlines have had a neutral impact on the stock price, but the bearish momentum signals from MACD and high volatility suggest potential for a technical correction.
Risk & Volatility Assessment
Beta Interpretation:
- Beta: 6.55 (vs SPY) - High risk profile due to increased market sensitivity.
Volatility Regime:
- Current vs historical volatility levels: Higher than average
Options Market Signals:
- IV Rank: 2.3% (Low)
- Current IV: 187.0%
- Expected Move: $19.10 (43 DTE), 7-DTE: $12.45
- Volume Flow: 4 calls vs 0 puts
- Open Interest: 3 calls vs 0 puts
Downside Protection:
- Support levels and risk management considerations:
- Critical price level: $35.25 (Bollinger Bands Lower Band)
- Breakout/breakdown levels: $47.24 (SMA 20)
Market Context & Positioning
Sector Performance:
- Relative strength vs sector/market: Neutral
Institutional Activity:
- Volume patterns suggesting institutional interest: Low volume flow and open interest in options market
Correlation Analysis:
- R-squared interpretation: High correlation with the market (0.95)
Relative Valuation:
- Position within trading range: Bullish
Key Levels & Action Items
Critical Price Levels:
- $35.25 (Bollinger Bands Lower Band)
- $47.24 (SMA 20)
Breakout/Breakdown Levels:
- None identified
Time-Sensitive Catalysts:
- No immediate catalysts identified; focus on technical signals and risk management.
Risk Management:
- Stop-loss levels: $37.63
- Position sizing considerations: Conservative, given high volatility and beta
- IV Rank (30D)
- 8.27
- IV Rank (7D)
- 8.27
- Avg IV
- 178.2%
- Straddle (30D)
- $8.18
- Straddle (7D)
- $8.18
- P/C Volume
- 2.58
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 6.46
- Correlation (SPY)
- 49.5%
- R²
- 0.25
- Ann. Volatility
- 169.6%
- SPY Volatility
- 13.0%
High volatility - stock moves more than market
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