TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
ETF 25.69 DelayedETF quote, holdings, sector allocation, technicals, and options analytics. Fibonacci levels
Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.
- 52-Week Range
- $24.91 – $44.24
- YTD
- -30.75%
- IV Rank (30D)
- 95.46
- Straddle Price
- $2.71
- P/C Vol Ratio
- 0.26
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) ETF
- Exchange
- ARCX
- Inception
- 2009-04-16
- Has Options
- Yes
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | 2026-09-29 | $0.3506 | CD |
| 2026-06-23 | 2026-06-30 | $0.3651 | CD |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $0.2232 | CD |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-12-31 | $0.4591 | CD |
| 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-30 | $0.4054 | CD |
| 2025-06-24 | 2025-07-01 | $0.3617 | CD |
| Symbol | Name | Weight % | Asset Class | Country |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BD | 66.92% | Equity (US) | US |
| — | TLT SWAP ASSET LEG | 38.51% | Derivative | — |
| — | TLT SWAP ASSET LEG | 36.72% | Derivative | — |
| — | TLT SWAP ASSET LEG | 32.33% | Derivative | — |
| — | TLT SWAP ASSET LEG | 29.35% | Derivative | — |
| — | TLT SWAP ASSET LEG | 28.04% | Derivative | — |
| — | TLT SWAP ASSET LEG | 27.33% | Derivative | — |
| — | TLT SWAP ASSET LEG | 23.43% | Derivative | — |
| — | TLT SWAP ASSET LEG | 17.38% | Derivative | — |
| — | DREYFUS GOVT CASH MAN INS | 16.99% | Derivative | — |
| — | GOLDMAN FINL SQ TRSRY INST 506 | 14.72% | Derivative | US |
| — | DREYFUS TRSRY SECURITIES CASH MGMT | 11.10% | Derivative | — |
| — | JP MORGAN 100 US TRSY CAPITAL 3163 | 10.68% | Derivative | — |
| — | GOLDMAN SACHS FIN GOV 465 INSTITUT | 3.52% | Derivative | — |
| Category | Weight | Value | Positions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short-term investment | 33.95% | $1.16B | 5 |
| Derivative (equity) | -2.43% | $-83192537 | 8 |
| Month | Avg Return | Years of Data |
|---|---|---|
| Jan | +3.66% | 17 |
| Feb | -0.97% | 17 |
| Mar | -0.35% | 17 |
| Apr | -2.08% | 18 |
| May | +1.83% | 18 |
| Jun | +1.49% | 18 |
| Jul | +2.52% | 18 |
| Aug | +4.59% | 18 |
| Sep | -2.30% | 18 |
| Oct | -6.40% | 18 |
| Nov | +1.74% | 17 |
| Dec | -1.62% | 17 |
Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.
- SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
- EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
- MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
- ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
- +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
- RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
- Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
- Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.
Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.
- Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
- OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
- Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
- ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
- HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.
Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →
Trend Indicators
Momentum Oscillators
Volume & Volatility
Data Summary
LLM Stock Analysis Report
Executive Summary BULLISH (Confidence Level: 6/10)
Key drivers:
- Strong technical support around current price level
- Low volatility and beta relative to market
- Recent news headlines are neutral, no significant catalysts driving the stock
Primary risks:
- Potential for consolidation or sideways movement if market conditions remain stable
- Lack of significant earnings-driven catalysts in near-term
Investment thesis: TMF has a strong technical foundation and low volatility profile, making it an attractive option for investors seeking a stable, long-term holding. However, without significant earnings-driven catalysts, the stock may experience consolidation or sideways movement.
Recent news sentiment impact: Neutral headlines have had little impact on TMF's recent price action.
Technical Analysis Trend Direction:
- Short-term (1-4 weeks): Downward trend due to bearish MACD signal
- Medium-term (1-3 months): Uptrend supported by SMA 200 and lower Bollinger Bands
- Long-term (3-12 months): Bullish momentum expected with potential for upward breakout
Support/Resistance Levels:
- Resistance: Upper Bollinger Band ($33.37), SMA 50 ($33.62)
- Support: Lower Bollinger Band ($30.11), SMA 20 ($31.74)
Momentum Signals:
- RSI: Neutral (41.53%)
- MACD signal: Bearish
- Bollinger Bands position: Mean reversion
Volume Analysis:
- Volume SMA 20: 4432762.25
- On-Balance Volume (OBV): -76170912.82
- Volume Rate of Change: -41.96%
News & Sentiment Analysis Recent Headlines Summary:
- Neutral news headlines on monetary policy, inflation relief, and consumer cooldown have had little impact on TMF's recent price action.
Sentiment Assessment: Neutral sentiment overall
Catalyst Identification:
- No significant earnings-driven catalysts in near-term
- Monetary policy tightening may lead to rate cuts, potentially impacting TMF's future performance
Market Narrative: News headlines are neutral, which aligns with the current market condition. However, the absence of significant catalysts creates uncertainty about the stock's future direction.
Risk & Volatility Assessment Beta Interpretation: Low volatility and beta relative to market (0.53)
Volatility Regime:
- Current vs historical volatility levels: Low volatility
- Options market signals: IV rank 29.1% (Medium), current IV 34.0%
Options Market Signals: IV Rank: 29.1% Current IV: 34.0% Expected Move: $1.96 (29 DTE), 7-DTE: $0.99
Market Context & Positioning Sector Performance:
- Relative strength vs sector/market: Neutral
Institutional Activity:
- Volume patterns suggesting institutional interest: Mixed signals
- Options market signals: IV rank 29.1% (Medium), current IV 34.0%
Correlation Analysis: Stock moves relative to market (R-squared interpretation): Low correlation
Relative Valuation: Position within trading range: Neutral
Key Levels & Action Items Critical Price Levels:
- Support: Lower Bollinger Band ($30.11), SMA 20 ($31.74)
- Resistance: Upper Bollinger Band ($33.37), SMA 50 ($33.62)
Breakout/Breakdown Levels: Technical levels that could trigger significant moves: SMA 200 ($36.80) and lower Bollinger Band ($30.11)
Time-Sensitive Catalysts:
- No significant earnings-driven catalysts in near-term
- Monetary policy tightening may lead to rate cuts, potentially impacting TMF's future performance
Risk Management: Stop-loss levels and position sizing considerations: Conservative approach with a stop-loss around $29.25 (10% below current price) and position size limited by risk tolerance.
Conclusion TMF has a strong technical foundation and low volatility profile, making it an attractive option for investors seeking a stable, long-term holding. However, without significant earnings-driven catalysts, the stock may experience consolidation or sideways movement. Risk management is crucial to minimize potential losses in the absence of clear direction.
- IV Rank (30D)
- 95.46
- IV Rank (7D)
- 100
- Avg IV
- 58.0%
- Straddle (30D)
- $2.71
- Straddle (7D)
- $1.36
- P/C Volume
- 0.26
Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →
score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.
RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.
- RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
- MACD crossover + histogram trend
- Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
- Stochastic %K <20 / >80
- Williams %R <−80 / >−20
- Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
- Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
- BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
- IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
- IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
- Min open interest across all legs
- OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05
score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →
Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.
Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol pointsHow much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.
- Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
- Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
- Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
- Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each sideWhich side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.
- Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
- Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
- Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
- Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:
- High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
- Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
- Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.
Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.
- Beta (1Y vs SPY)
- 0.59
- Correlation (SPY)
- 27.9%
- R²
- 0.08
- Ann. Volatility
- 27.5%
- SPY Volatility
- 13.0%
Low volatility - stock moves less than market
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