TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF

ETF 25.69 Delayed

ETF quote, holdings, sector allocation, technicals, and options analytics. Fibonacci levels

Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Verify quotes with your broker before trading. See Terms §17.

TMF $25.69 —
Key stats
$25.69
52-Week Range
$24.91 – $44.24
YTD
-30.75%
IV Rank (30D)
95.46
Straddle Price
$2.71
P/C Vol Ratio
0.26
About

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) ETF

Exchange
ARCX
Inception
2009-04-16
Has Options
Yes
ETF Profile
holdings as of 2026-10-01
Holdings
14
AUM
$7.2B
Provider
Direxion
Inception
2009-04-16
Exchange
ARCX
Data As Of
2026-10-01
Expense Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
5.41%
Distribution
Quarterly
Recent distributions
Ex-Date Pay Date Amount Type
2026-09-22 2026-09-29 $0.3506 CD
2026-06-23 2026-06-30 $0.3651 CD
2026-03-24 2026-03-31 $0.2232 CD
2025-12-23 2025-12-31 $0.4591 CD
2025-09-23 2025-09-30 $0.4054 CD
2025-06-24 2025-07-01 $0.3617 CD
Asset Allocation
Top Holdings
top 14 of 14 holdings
Symbol Name Weight % Asset Class Country
TLT ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BD 66.92% Equity (US) US
— TLT SWAP ASSET LEG 38.51% Derivative —
— TLT SWAP ASSET LEG 36.72% Derivative —
— TLT SWAP ASSET LEG 32.33% Derivative —
— TLT SWAP ASSET LEG 29.35% Derivative —
— TLT SWAP ASSET LEG 28.04% Derivative —
— TLT SWAP ASSET LEG 27.33% Derivative —
— TLT SWAP ASSET LEG 23.43% Derivative —
— TLT SWAP ASSET LEG 17.38% Derivative —
— DREYFUS GOVT CASH MAN INS 16.99% Derivative —
— GOLDMAN FINL SQ TRSRY INST 506 14.72% Derivative US
— DREYFUS TRSRY SECURITIES CASH MGMT 11.10% Derivative —
— JP MORGAN 100 US TRSY CAPITAL 3163 10.68% Derivative —
— GOLDMAN SACHS FIN GOV 465 INSTITUT 3.52% Derivative —
Non-Equity Breakdown
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares · NPORT-P period 2026-10-31 (filed 2026-04-01)
Net assets: $3.42B · 14 total positions · equity 68.19% · non-equity 31.51%
Non-equity holdings — 13 positions, 31.51% of NAV
Category Weight Value Positions
Short-term investment 33.95% $1.16B 5
Derivative (equity) -2.43% $-83192537 8
Chart
Seasonality
MonthAvg ReturnYears of Data
Jan +3.66% 17
Feb -0.97% 17
Mar -0.35% 17
Apr -2.08% 18
May +1.83% 18
Jun +1.49% 18
Jul +2.52% 18
Aug +4.59% 18
Sep -2.30% 18
Oct -6.40% 18
Nov +1.74% 17
Dec -1.62% 17
Technical Indicators

Quick-reference for reading the values below. Indicators combine to confirm a view — no single one is a trade signal on its own.

Trend Indicators
  • SMA 20 / 50 / 200 — price above = uptrend, below = downtrend. SMA 50 crossing SMA 200 is the golden/death cross.
  • EMA 12 / 26 — faster-reacting averages; 12 above 26 is short-term bullish.
  • MACD — bullish when MACD > signal (green badge), bearish when below. Divergence from price often precedes reversals.
  • ADX (14) — trend strength regardless of direction. <20 range, 20–25 weak trend, 25–50 trend, >50 strong trend.
  • +DI / −DI — +DI > −DI favors bulls; the reverse favors bears. Read alongside ADX.
Momentum Oscillators
  • RSI (14) — <30 oversold, >70 overbought. 40–60 is neutral; trending names can stay extreme.
  • Stochastic %K / %D — <20 oversold, >80 overbought. %K crossing %D is an early momentum signal.
  • Williams %R — inverted scale: <−80 oversold, >−20 overbought.

Oscillators work best in range-bound markets; in strong trends they give premature reversal signals.

Volume & Volatility
  • Bollinger Bands — price at upper band = overbought, lower = oversold. Narrow bands (squeeze) often precede expansion.
  • OBV — cumulative volume; rising OBV confirms uptrend, falling OBV confirms downtrend. Divergence from price is a warning.
  • Vol SMA 20 / Vol ROC — today's volume vs. 20-day average. Positive ROC with price move = conviction.
  • ATR / True Range — average daily $ move; sizing and stop-loss reference.
  • HV 20 / 30 / 60 — realized (historical) volatility. Compare to IV on the options cards: IV > HV = rich premium.

Confluence matters: trend + momentum + volume agreeing carries far more weight than any single indicator. For how these feed the spread scanner score, see the algorithm docs →

Trend Indicators

SMA 20: $28.57
SMA 50: $30.12
SMA 200: $34.84
Current: $25.63
EMA 12: $27.25
EMA 26: $28.59
MACD: -1.3418 | Signal: -0.3324
BEARISH
ADX (14): 32.49
TREND
+DI: 12.72
−DI: 41.66

Momentum Oscillators

RSI (14): 24.81
OVERSOLD
Stoch %K: 12.07
Stoch %D: 10.03
Williams %R: -86.62

Volume & Volatility

BB Upper: $32.13
BB Lower: $25.00
NEUTRAL
OBV: -48,795,847
Vol SMA 20: 8,367,511
Vol ROC: 229.08%
ATR: $0.86
True Range: $0.81
HV 20: 30.9%
HV 30: 29.0%
HV 60: 29.4%

Data Summary

Data Points: 500
Last Updated:
Date Range: 2024-10-03T00:00:00 – 2026-10-01T00:00:00
AI Analysis

LLM Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary BULLISH (Confidence Level: 6/10)

Key drivers:

  • Strong technical support around current price level
  • Low volatility and beta relative to market
  • Recent news headlines are neutral, no significant catalysts driving the stock

Primary risks:

  • Potential for consolidation or sideways movement if market conditions remain stable
  • Lack of significant earnings-driven catalysts in near-term

Investment thesis: TMF has a strong technical foundation and low volatility profile, making it an attractive option for investors seeking a stable, long-term holding. However, without significant earnings-driven catalysts, the stock may experience consolidation or sideways movement.

Recent news sentiment impact: Neutral headlines have had little impact on TMF's recent price action.

Technical Analysis Trend Direction:

  • Short-term (1-4 weeks): Downward trend due to bearish MACD signal
  • Medium-term (1-3 months): Uptrend supported by SMA 200 and lower Bollinger Bands
  • Long-term (3-12 months): Bullish momentum expected with potential for upward breakout

Support/Resistance Levels:

  • Resistance: Upper Bollinger Band ($33.37), SMA 50 ($33.62)
  • Support: Lower Bollinger Band ($30.11), SMA 20 ($31.74)

Momentum Signals:

  • RSI: Neutral (41.53%)
  • MACD signal: Bearish
  • Bollinger Bands position: Mean reversion

Volume Analysis:

  • Volume SMA 20: 4432762.25
  • On-Balance Volume (OBV): -76170912.82
  • Volume Rate of Change: -41.96%

News & Sentiment Analysis Recent Headlines Summary:

  • Neutral news headlines on monetary policy, inflation relief, and consumer cooldown have had little impact on TMF's recent price action.

Sentiment Assessment: Neutral sentiment overall

Catalyst Identification:

  • No significant earnings-driven catalysts in near-term
  • Monetary policy tightening may lead to rate cuts, potentially impacting TMF's future performance

Market Narrative: News headlines are neutral, which aligns with the current market condition. However, the absence of significant catalysts creates uncertainty about the stock's future direction.

Risk & Volatility Assessment Beta Interpretation: Low volatility and beta relative to market (0.53)

Volatility Regime:

  • Current vs historical volatility levels: Low volatility
  • Options market signals: IV rank 29.1% (Medium), current IV 34.0%

Options Market Signals: IV Rank: 29.1% Current IV: 34.0% Expected Move: $1.96 (29 DTE), 7-DTE: $0.99

Market Context & Positioning Sector Performance:

  • Relative strength vs sector/market: Neutral

Institutional Activity:

  • Volume patterns suggesting institutional interest: Mixed signals
  • Options market signals: IV rank 29.1% (Medium), current IV 34.0%

Correlation Analysis: Stock moves relative to market (R-squared interpretation): Low correlation

Relative Valuation: Position within trading range: Neutral

Key Levels & Action Items Critical Price Levels:

  • Support: Lower Bollinger Band ($30.11), SMA 20 ($31.74)
  • Resistance: Upper Bollinger Band ($33.37), SMA 50 ($33.62)

Breakout/Breakdown Levels: Technical levels that could trigger significant moves: SMA 200 ($36.80) and lower Bollinger Band ($30.11)

Time-Sensitive Catalysts:

  • No significant earnings-driven catalysts in near-term
  • Monetary policy tightening may lead to rate cuts, potentially impacting TMF's future performance

Risk Management: Stop-loss levels and position sizing considerations: Conservative approach with a stop-loss around $29.25 (10% below current price) and position size limited by risk tolerance.

Conclusion TMF has a strong technical foundation and low volatility profile, making it an attractive option for investors seeking a stable, long-term holding. However, without significant earnings-driven catalysts, the stock may experience consolidation or sideways movement. Risk management is crucial to minimize potential losses in the absence of clear direction.

Generated
News
Options Activity
IV Rank (30D)
95.46
IV Rank (7D)
100
Avg IV
58.0%
Straddle (30D)
$2.71
Straddle (7D)
$1.36
P/C Volume
0.26
Spread Scanner GPU

Each spread is ranked by a composite score built in three stages. Full documentation →

Stage 1 — Base Score (GPU scanner)

score = P(profit) × (credit / spread_width)
P(profit) from short leg delta (1 − |delta|), penalised above 85%. Credit uses mid-price to handle illiquid chains fairly.

Stage 2 — Skew Adjustment (±25% cap)

RR and BF (30-delta) from the persisted per-symbol skew snapshot — wing strikes picked by real greeks.delta, not a moneyness proxy. Put skew boosts bull puts, penalises bear calls. High butterfly boosts iron condors. Calendars are skew-neutral.

Stage 3 — Technical Overlay (±50% cap, 5 groups)
Group 1 · Directional Bias (±0.25)
  • RSI <40 bullish / >60 bearish
  • MACD crossover + histogram trend
  • Price vs SMA 50 & SMA 200
Group 2 · Momentum (±0.10)
  • Stochastic %K <20 / >80
  • Williams %R <−80 / >−20
Group 3 · Volatility (up to −0.25 / +0.15)
  • Blended ATR + straddle expected-move penalty
  • Bollinger Band signal (+ counter-trend penalty)
  • BB width — vol contraction boost for ICs
Group 4 · IV Regime (±0.15)
  • IV rank ≥ 75 → strong boost for credit spreads
  • IV rank < 25 → penalty (selling cheap vol)
Group 5 · Liquidity (penalty up to −0.10)
  • Min open interest across all legs
  • OI < 100 → −0.10 · OI < 500 → −0.05

score = base_score × skew_multiplier × tech_multiplier
Both multipliers are shown per spread. Beta is informational only — ATR already captures realized vol. Full algorithm documentation →

Enter a ticker to scan for optimal spread opportunities.

Evaluates all bull put, bear call, iron condor, and calendar spread combinations using GPU-accelerated analysis.

Skew (Wing IV − ATM IV)
DTE:
Wing Δ:
Metric:
Wing vs ATM
IV(put wing) − IV(ATM), in vol points

How much the OTM put trades above (or below) the at-the-money strike. Measures the height of the put-side tail relative to ATM — i.e. how expensive crash insurance is on this name.

  • Positive (typical) — wing IV > ATM IV. Standard equity put skew: portfolios bid up crash protection, so OTM puts trade richer than ATM.
  • Near zero or negative (unusual) — wing IV ≤ ATM IV. Flat or inverted put side. Common when there's no fear demand, in tightly mean-reverting names, or right after an earnings catalyst clears.
  • Percentile vs own 3-yr history: high = wings rich (good time to sell wing premium); low = wings cheap (good time to buy protection).
  • Not directional — high or low wings don't predict up or down moves. It's a price tag on tail insurance, not a forecast.
Risk Reversal
IV(call wing) − IV(put wing), equal delta on each side

Which side of the smile is the market paying up for? Measures the tilt of the surface — call skew vs put skew at matched deltas.

  • Negative (typical) — puts richer than calls. Standard equity behavior: hedging demand makes puts carry a premium. Most large-caps sit in the −1 to −5 vol-point range.
  • Strongly negative (< −5 pts) — heavy downside hedging, elevated fear, or an upcoming catalyst (earnings, FDA, macro event). Worth flagging.
  • Positive — calls richer than puts. Unusual for equities; signals bullish momentum, short-squeeze positioning, or takeover/M&A speculation.
  • Near zero — symmetric surface. Market sees roughly equal up/down risk. Rare for large-caps; more common in commodities and FX.
Reading them together

Wing-vs-ATM tells you how expensive the tails are. Risk Reversal tells you which side is favored. Combined:

  • High wing percentile + deeply negative RR → strong put bid; stress or major event priced in. Owning protection costs a premium; selling put premium is dangerous.
  • Low wing percentile + near-zero RR → complacency; insurance cheap and balanced. Good environment to add cheap downside hedges.
  • Positive RR + elevated wings → call-side fear-of-missing-out; common in squeeze setups. Upside calls expensive, downside puts not bid.
14 DTE / 10d —
— pts EXTREME
ATM — / Wing —
30 DTE / 10d —
— pts EXTREME
ATM — / Wing —

Percentile is the rank of today's reading within ~3 years of this symbol's own history. High percentile = wings are rich relative to history; not a directional signal. Skew is read off the chain in real time, not from CBOE SKEW.

Volatility Surface

Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility surface.

Volatility Smile

Enter a ticker to render the implied volatility smile.

IV Rank (7 DTE)
IV Rank (30 DTE)
Straddle Price (30 DTE)
Beta Analysis
Beta (1Y vs SPY)
0.59
Correlation (SPY)
27.9%
R²
0.08
Ann. Volatility
27.5%
SPY Volatility
13.0%

Low volatility - stock moves less than market

Beta & Alpha Over Time
Constituent Performance

Click any bar to view the full quote for that stock.

Constituents
Symbol Name Weight % Price 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month