What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 38%, implying a 38% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Sep 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

At least 10

Closes Sep 16, 2026 (68d) 24h volume 15 Open interest 291 Event How many AIPAC-endorsed candidates will lose their primaries?

38%

implied YES probability

-8.0pp 24h

Last 20 days · High 44% · Low 15% · 7d +44.0pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.