What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 18%, implying a 18% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Sep 08, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

a party founded by Elon Musk

Closes Sep 08, 2028 (814d) 24h volume 75 Open interest 2.2K Event Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

18%

implied YES probability

+6.0pp 24h

Last 5 days · High 25% · Low 13%

TSLA Tesla, Inc. Common Stock

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.