What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 18%, implying a 18% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Kai Newkirk

Closes Nov 03, 2027 (481d) 24h volume 3.0K Open interest 19.5K Event AZ-04 Democratic nominee?

18%

implied YES probability

+4.0pp 24h

Last 19 days · High 27% · Low 4% · 7d +7.1pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.