What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Companies

a steel Nautilus reference

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (175d) 24h volume 165 Open interest 4.0K Event Will Patek release a steel Nautilus reference this year?

implied YES probability

+4.0pp 24h

Last 25 days · High 47% · Low 1% · 7d +33.3pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.