What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 18%, implying a 18% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Oct 04, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Lula da Silva, 0-5%

Closes Oct 04, 2027 (451d) 24h volume 70 Open interest 1.0K Event Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

18%

implied YES probability

+4.0pp 24h

Last 13 days · High 83% · Low 20% · 7d -51.2pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.