What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 74%, implying a 74% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 10, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Crypto

Bitcoin price on Jul 10, 2026?

$62,500 or above

Closes Jul 10, 2026 (1d) 24h volume 50.1K Open interest 40.7K Event BTC price on Jul 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

74%

implied YES probability

+28.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 6 days · High 62% · Low 38%

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently pricing a 64% chance that Bitcoin's price on July 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT will be above its current level. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the cryptocurrency's historical volatility and the ongoing development of the underlying blockchain technology. The market is not considering any specific events or announcements that may occur between now and then, but rather is reflecting a general sentiment about the future direction of Bitcoin's price. A significant change in this probability would require a major shift in investor confidence, regulatory developments, or a substantial improvement in the overall cryptocurrency market.

Generated Jul 07, 2026

Top of book

Bid	Size	Ask	Size
73.0¢	1004	75.0¢	2344
72.0¢	5193	76.0¢	300
71.0¢	1781	77.0¢	5014
70.0¢	1	79.0¢	551
39.0¢	2	80.0¢	85

Spread 2.0¢ · Mid 74.0¢

Trade on Kalshi

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.