What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 60%, implying a 60% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 10, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Crypto

Bitcoin price on Jul 10, 2026?

$63,000 or above

Closes Jul 10, 2026 (1d) 24h volume 45.4K Open interest 37.2K Event BTC price on Jul 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

60%

implied YES probability

+26.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 6 days · High 58% · Low 27%

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market is currently pricing in a 40% chance that Bitcoin's price on July 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT will be higher than its current value. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the cryptocurrency's historical volatility and the ongoing development of the underlying blockchain technology. The market is not considering any specific events or announcements that may impact the price, but rather reflecting a general sentiment about the future direction of Bitcoin. A significant change in the perceived likelihood of a bull or bear market would be required to move the price up or down, potentially driven by shifts in investor confidence, regulatory developments, or changes in global economic conditions.

Generated Jul 08, 2026

Top of book

Bid	Size	Ask	Size
58.0¢	6010	60.0¢	753
57.0¢	100	61.0¢	2310
56.0¢	596	62.0¢	1853
52.0¢	300	63.0¢	25000
48.0¢	500	64.0¢	5000

Spread 2.0¢ · Mid 59.0¢

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Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.