What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 26%, implying a 26% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 10, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Crypto

Bitcoin price on Jul 10, 2026?

$64,000 or above

Closes Jul 10, 2026 (1d) 24h volume 16.3K Open interest 66.9K Event BTC price on Jul 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?

26%

implied YES probability

+10.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 6 days · High 44% · Low 12%

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market for Bitcoin's price on July 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT currently indicates a 35% probability that the price will be above its current level on that date. This assessment is informed by known facts such as recent market trends and economic indicators. The current price of 0.35 implies that the majority of participants in the market do not expect a significant increase in Bitcoin's value over the next two years. A change in this assessment would require a notable shift in market sentiment or a major event affecting the cryptocurrency's value, such as regulatory changes or a significant increase in adoption.

Generated Jul 04, 2026

Top of book

Bid	Size	Ask	Size
13.0¢	232	15.0¢	20548
12.0¢	1600	16.0¢	6786
11.0¢	1700	20.0¢	550
10.0¢	25050	29.0¢	300
7.0¢	142	33.0¢	11

Spread 2.0¢ · Mid 14.0¢

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Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.