What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 2%, implying a 2% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Mike McGuire

Closes Nov 03, 2027 (504d) 24h volume 4.5K Open interest 5.6K Event CA-01 primary: first place

2%

implied YES probability

-14.0pp 24h

Last 16 days · High 98% · Low 2% · 7d -85.7pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.