What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 96%, implying a 96% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Mike Thompson

Closes Nov 03, 2027 (504d) 24h volume 519 Open interest 8.5K Event CA-04 primary: first place

96%

implied YES probability

-1.0pp 24h

Last 30 days · High 99% · Low 6% · 7d -3.0pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.