What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 98%, implying a 98% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Juan Vargas

Closes Nov 03, 2027 (504d) 24h volume 250 Open interest 2.4K Event CA-52 primary: first place

98%

implied YES probability

Last 6 days · High 99% · Low 94%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.