What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 92%, implying a 92% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 09, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Sports

Tadej Pogacar

Closes Aug 09, 2026 (30d) 24h volume 16.6K Open interest 49.3K Event Tour de France Winner

92%

implied YES probability

+8.0pp 24h

Last 6 days · High 85% · Low 76%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.