What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 29%, implying a 29% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 18, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

James Fishback

Closes Aug 18, 2026 (39d) 24h volume 2.1K Open interest 7.6K Event Who will drop out of their primary?

29%

implied YES probability

-3.0pp 24h

Last 26 days · High 37% · Low 8% · 7d +130.8pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.