What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Climate and Weather

California

Closes Jul 31, 2026 (43d) 24h volume 10 Open interest 1.1K Event Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30)

4%

implied YES probability

+1.0pp 24h

Last 16 days · High 97% · Low 1% · 7d 0.0pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.