What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 26%, implying a 26% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2050. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Climate and Weather

Before Jan 1, 2050

Closes Jan 01, 2050 (8599d) 24h volume 24 Open interest 11.1K Event Will a supervolcano erupt before 2050?

26%

implied YES probability

-2.0pp 24h

Last 83 days · High 32% · Low 14% · 7d 0.0pp · 30d -8.3pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.