What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 18%, implying a 18% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Before Jan 1, 2027

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (175d) 24h volume 414 Open interest 5.1K Event Nigel Farage announces departure as Reform UK leader?

18%

implied YES probability

-2.0pp 24h

Last 2 days · High 19% · Low 15%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.