What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 58%, implying a 58% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Science and Technology

John Pardon

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (197d) 24h volume 13 Open interest 2.9K Event Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026?

58%

implied YES probability

-8.5pp 24h

Last 20 days · High 83% · Low 34% · 7d -3.9pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.