What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 26%, implying a 26% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 02, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Entertainment

Half-Life 3

Closes Jan 02, 2027 (199d) 24h volume 96 Open interest 39.8K Event Video games released this year

26%

implied YES probability

-8.0pp 24h

Last 86 days · High 32% · Low 14% · 7d -23.1pp · 30d -9.1pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.