What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 24%, implying a 24% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Climate and Weather

Hottest ever

Closes Aug 16, 2026 (37d) 24h volume 473 Open interest 2.2K Event This Jul 2026 is the hottest July ever?

24%

implied YES probability

Last 12 days · High 25% · Low 7% · 7d +22.2pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.