What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 77%, implying a 77% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Financials

S&P 500 Total Return Index

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (197d) 24h volume 9 Open interest 3.4K Event Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. Gold?

77%

implied YES probability

+2.0pp 24h

Last 29 days · High 84% · Low 35% · 7d +24.6pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.