What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 40%, implying a 40% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Entertainment

By Jan 1, 2027

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 135 Open interest 4.3K Event Marvel: Robert Downey Jr. back as Iron Man this year?

40%

implied YES probability

Last 83 days · High 63% · Low 27% · 7d -9.1pp · 30d -7.0pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.