What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 30%, implying a 30% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

1

Closes Nov 03, 2026 (139d) 24h volume 49 Open interest 15.9K Event How many Senate Democrats will lose their primary in 2026?

30%

implied YES probability

-12.0pp 24h

Last 65 days · High 42% · Low 9% · 7d +11.1pp · 30d +122.2pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.