What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 84%, implying a 84% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Sep 20, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

AfD

Closes Sep 20, 2027 (437d) 24h volume 210 Open interest 2.0K Event Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election winner?

84%

implied YES probability

-4.0pp 24h

Last 14 days · High 94% · Low 53% · 7d -2.2pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.