What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 63%, implying a 63% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 03, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Republicans, 19+ pts

Closes Nov 03, 2027 (504d) 24h volume 227 Open interest 639 Event Arkansas's 3rd District margin of victory

63%

implied YES probability

+8.0pp 24h

Last 8 days · High 75% · Low 49% · 7d -12.0pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.