What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 58%, implying a 58% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Science and Technology

Above 20

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 19 Open interest 280 Event How many mpox clade Ib cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

58%

implied YES probability

-28.0pp 24h

Last 4 days · High 83% · Low 40%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.