What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 20%, implying a 20% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Lisa Murkowski

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 336 Open interest 5.3K Event Who will switch or leave their party in 2026?

20%

implied YES probability

+2.0pp 24h

Last 21 days · High 25% · Low 15% · 7d +33.3pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.