What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 22%, implying a 22% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Financials

4.75% or above

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (175d) 24h volume 1 Open interest 322 Event 10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

22%

implied YES probability

+1.0pp 24h

Last 13 days · High 98% · Low 11% · 7d -79.6pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.