What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 21%, implying a 21% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Entertainment

The Social Reckoning

Closes Dec 31, 2027 (562d) 24h volume 10 Open interest 791 Event Oscar nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay

21%

implied YES probability

Last 13 days · High 55% · Low 16% · 7d -52.8pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.