What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 2%, implying a 2% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 25, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Entertainment

Will I Knew It, I Knew You be 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in July 2026?

I Knew It, I Knew You

Closes Jul 25, 2026 (15d) 24h volume 4.2K Open interest 117.4K Event Which songs will be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in July?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 22 days · High 92% · Low 3% · 7d -72.7pp

Other outcomes in this event

AI analysis

The prediction market for Will I Knew It, I Knew You reaching #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 in July 2026 currently indicates a 4% probability of this outcome occurring. This assessment is informed by known facts about the song's release date and promotional efforts, as well as the typical performance of songs in similar genres on the chart. The current price would likely increase if there were significant changes to the song's marketing strategy or if other factors affecting its popularity emerged. Conversely, a decrease in the song's radio airplay or a surge in competition from other popular tracks could cause the YES price to decline. As the market closes on July 25th, any new information that becomes available before then may impact the current probability assessment.

Generated Jul 07, 2026

Top of book

Bid	Size	Ask	Size
2.0¢	10692	3.0¢	12168
1.0¢	11825	4.0¢	2941
		5.0¢	1255
		6.0¢	4009
		7.0¢	235

Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 2.5¢

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.