What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 18%, implying a 18% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Entertainment

Ariana Grande

Closes Aug 31, 2026 (75d) 24h volume 39 Open interest 2.7K Event Artist with the most monthly Spotify listeners at the end of Aug 2026?

18%

implied YES probability

Last 35 days · High 28% · Low 2% · 7d -7.7pp · 30d +60.0pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.