What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 68%, implying a 68% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 08, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Mentions

Iran (3+ times)

Closes Aug 08, 2026 (52d) 24h volume 3 Open interest 1.0K Event What will Trump say during the White House Correspondents' Dinner?

68%

implied YES probability

+1.0pp 24h

Last 7 days · High 75% · Low 61%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.