What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 23%, implying a 23% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Mentions

Trump Arc / Arc de Trump

Closes Jul 01, 2026 (14d) 24h volume 11 Open interest 4.8K Event How will Trump reference himself before July?

23%

implied YES probability

-5.0pp 24h

Last 71 days · High 93% · Low 15% · 7d -28.6pp · 30d -24.2pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.