What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 40%, implying a 40% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 03, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Talarico defeats Paxton

Closes Jan 03, 2028 (565d) 24h volume 1.7K Open interest 33.8K Event Texas Senate: Exact outcome

40%

implied YES probability

-4.0pp 24h

Last 51 days · High 44% · Low 27% · 7d +5.0pp · 30d +55.6pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.