What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 42%, implying a 42% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 14, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Financials

Above 48.5 million

Closes Aug 14, 2026 (36d) 24h volume 123 Open interest 2.4K Event United Airlines passengers in Q2

42%

implied YES probability

+1.0pp 24h

Last 31 days · High 72% · Low 6% · 7d +65.4pp · 30d +437.5pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.