What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 40%, implying a 40% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 11, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Sports

IR Iran

Closes Jul 11, 2026 (24d) 24h volume 5.5K Open interest 13.9K Event Group G Qualifiers

40%

implied YES probability

-8.0pp 24h

Last 7 days · High 63% · Low 47%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.