What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 86%, implying a 86% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 07, 2029. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Democratic party

Closes Nov 07, 2029 (1216d) 24h volume 28 Open interest 1.1K Event Hawaii Senate winner? (2028)

86%

implied YES probability

+1.0pp 24h

Last 12 days · High 87% · Low 83% · 7d +1.2pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.