What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 21%, implying a 21% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 10, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Weather

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 10?

34°C

Closes Jul 10, 2026 (0d) 24h volume $6.7K Open interest $18.2K Event Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10?

21%

implied YES probability

-8.9pp 24h

Price history

Last 2 days · High 34% · Low 30%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.