What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 12%, implying a 12% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on —. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Sports

Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?

Arsenal

Closes — 24h volume $37 Open interest $2.1K Event Where will Julian Alvarez transfer?

12%

implied YES probability

Price history

Not enough price history yet.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the next team Julian Alvarez officially joins by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Julian Alvarez does not officially join a new team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Atletico Madrid". If Julian Alvarez joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other". If Julian Alvarez is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". An official transfer announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from Atletico Madrid and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.