What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 63%, implying a 63% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 04, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Sports

Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Mexico

Closes Jul 04, 2026 (16d) 24h volume $1.9K Open interest $638.7K Event World Cup: Nation To Reach Round of 16

63%

implied YES probability

+4.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 16 days · High 64% · Low 49% · 7d +17.8pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.