What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 16%, implying a 16% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Finance

↑ $8,600

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (197d) 24h volume $101 Open interest $66.4K Event What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?

16%

implied YES probability

+0.5pp 24h

Last 91 days · High 25% · Low 6% · 7d 0.0pp · 30d +39.1pp

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December 2026?

Open on Polymarket

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.