What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 32%, implying a 32% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 30, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Weather

Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Closes Jun 30, 2026 (12d) 24h volume $443 Open interest $24.8K Event How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30? (Higher Strikes)

32%

implied YES probability

+4.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 76 days · High 40% · Low 8% · 7d -16.2pp · 30d +46.2pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.